Louisville vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Mar. 4

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Virginia head coach Tony Bennett reacts to a call during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, N.C., Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023.
(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 04, 2023, 11:05 AM
  • Virginia (22-6) is a -18.5 point favorite vs Louisville (4-26)
  • Total (Over/Under): 127.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN2

The Louisville Cardinals (4-26) visit John Paul Jones Arena to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (22-6) on Mar. 4. Tip off is scheduled for 2:00pm EST in Charlottesville.

Virginia is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -18.5 (-110).

The Louisville vs. Virginia Over/Under is 127.5 total points.

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Louisville vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Louisville+18.5 -110O 127.5 -110+1200
Virginia -18.5 -110U 127.5 -110-3000

Louisville vs Virginia Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Virginia will win this game with 79.0% confidence.

Louisville vs Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 51.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisville and Virginia, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 47 games (+13.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+3.35 Units / 7% ROI)

Louisville Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Louisville has gone 12-18 against the spread this college basketball season (-7.8 Units / -23.64% ROI).

  • 4-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.4 Units / -41.72% ROI
  • 14-15 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -7.58% ROI
  • 15-14 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -1.21% ROI

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has gone 11-16 against the spread this college basketball season (-6.6 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 18-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.55 Units / 6.85% ROI
  • 14-14 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • 14-14 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends:

Louisville has averaged 16.2 turnovers per game (357 turnovers/22 games) this season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 11.6

Louisville has averaged 7.8 turnovers per game (172 turnovers/22 games) in the second half this season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 5.6

Louisville has averaged 16.2 turnovers per game (357 turnovers/22 games) this season — highest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 12.2

Louisville has averaged 9.0 assists per game (198 assists/22 games) this season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 13.5

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (159 assists/ 97 TOs) in the second half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 1.1

Louisville Defensive Stats & Trends:

Louisville has averaged 5.0 steals per game (111 steals/22 games) this season — 2nd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Louisville has averaged 5.4 steals per game (118 steals/22 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.1

Louisville has allowed 74.5 points per game (1,638 points/22 games) this season — 2nd highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 69.6

Louisville has allowed 35.7 points per game (785 points/22 games) in the first half this season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.0

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.