Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Mar. 3

• Florida is a -23.5 point favorite vs Mississippi State
• Total (Over/Under): 160.5 points
• Mississippi State / Florida TV channel: SECN

The Mississippi State Bulldogs visit Stephen C. O’Connell Center to take on the Florida Gators on Mar. 3. Tip off is scheduled for 8:00 pm in Gainesville, FL.

Florida is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -23.5 (-110).

The Mississippi State vs. Florida Over/Under is 160.5 total points.

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Mississippi State vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Florida will win this college basketball game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Mississippi State vs Florida Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Florida will cover the spread with 70.0% confidence for today’s game.

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Mississippi State Basketball Best Bets Today:

• Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.45 Units / 42% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+4.75 Units / 44% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)

Florida Basketball Best Bets Today:

• Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 16 games at home (+11.10 Units / 1% ROI)
• Florida has hit the Moneyline in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 7% ROI)
• Florida have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI)
• Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• Florida has hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)

Mississippi State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Mississippi State has a 10-19 record against the spread this college basketball season (-10.8 Units / -34.02% ROI).

• 13-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -0.14% ROI
• 14-15 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -7.84% ROI
• 15-14 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -1.25% ROI

Florida Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Florida has a 16-13 record against the spread this college basketball season (+1.7 Units / 5.33% ROI).

• 22-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.03% ROI
• 11-18 when betting the Over for -8.8 Units / -27.59% ROI
• 18-11 when betting the Under for +5.9 Units / 18.5% ROI

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends:

Mississippi State has averaged 1.23 points per shot (2,253 points/1,827 shots) this season — lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 1.36

Mississippi State has a 31% free throw rate (1,247 free throw attempts/3,974 field goal attempts) since the start of the 2024-25 season — lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 38%

Mississippi State has averaged 1.35 points per shot (1,177 points/874 shots) in the second half this season — lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 1.45

Mississippi State is shooting 67% from the free throw line (381/571) this season — 3rd lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 73%

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends:

Florida has averaged 15.9 offensive rebounds per game (461 rebounds/29 games) this season — 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 10.3

Florida averaged 14.6 offensive rebounds per game (527 rebounds/36 games) last season — 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 9.8

Florida averaged 85.6 points per game (3,080 points/36 games) last season — 6th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 73.6

Florida has averaged 15.9 offensive rebounds per game (461 rebounds/29 games) this season — 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 11.5

Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends:

Mississippi State allowed opponents to shoot 30% from three (235/771) last season — 12th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%

Mississippi State has averaged 27.3 defensive rebounds per game (792 rebounds/29 games) this season — tied for 19th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 23.9

Mississippi State allowed 9.8 made three-pointers per game last season — highest among Power Conference defenses; League Avg: 8.0

Mississippi State has allowed 80.3 points per game (2,329 points/29 games) this season — tied for 27th highest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 74.1

Florida Defensive Stats & Trends:

Florida has averaged 29.7 defensive rebounds per game (860 rebounds/29 games) this season — 3rd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 23.9

Florida has allowed an average of 1.16 points per shot (2,071 points/1,785 shots) this season — best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 1.26

Florida has allowed opponents to shoot 41% (863/2,088) in the second half since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 45%

Florida has allowed opponents to shoot 41% (723/1,785) this season — best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 44%

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