- Valparaiso is a -3.5 point favorite vs Missouri State
- Total (Over/Under): 140.5 points
- Missouri State / Valparaiso TV channel: ESPN+
The Missouri State Bears visit Athletics-Recreation Center to take on the Valparaiso Beacons on Feb. 19. Tip off is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Valparaiso, IN, USA.
Valparaiso is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Missouri State vs. Valparaiso Over/Under is 140.5 total points.
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Missouri State vs. Valparaiso Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Missouri State | +3.5 -110 | O 140.5 -110 | +125 |
| Valparaiso | -3.5 -110 | U 140.5 -110 | -155 |
Missouri State vs Valparaiso Prediction for Today:
The winning team model predicts Missouri State will win this college basketball game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.
Missouri State vs Valparaiso Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Valparaiso will cover the spread with 60.7% confidence for today’s game.
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Missouri State Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Missouri State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 17 away games (+1.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 17 away games (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)
- Missouri State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 17 away games (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)
Valparaiso Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Valparaiso has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Valparaiso has hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Valparaiso have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Valparaiso has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+2.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- Valparaiso has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games at home (+0.65 Units / 2% ROI)
Missouri State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)
Missouri State has a 13-12 record against the spread this college basketball season (-0.2 Units / -0.73% ROI).
- 7-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.15 Units / -40.23% ROI
- 12-13 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -8.35% ROI
- 13-12 when betting the Under for -0.15 Units / -0.55% ROI
Valparaiso Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)
Valparaiso has a 11-12 record against the spread this college basketball season (-2.2 Units / -7.97% ROI).
- 9-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.7 Units / -20.18% ROI
- 16-9 when betting the Over for +6.1 Units / 22.18% ROI
- 9-16 when betting the Under for -8.6 Units / -31.27% ROI
Missouri State Offensive Stats & Trends:
Missouri State shot 31% from three (209/680) last season — 9th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%
Missouri State is shooting 65% from the free throw line (337/521) this season — tied for 5th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 72%
Missouri State has an assist to turnover ratio of 0.9 (335 assists/ 372 TOs) this season — tied for 10th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.2
Missouri State has averaged 13.8 turnovers per game (372 turnovers/27 games) this season — 2nd highest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 11.9
Valparaiso Offensive Stats & Trends:
Valparaiso averaged 1.10 points per shot (2,093 points/1,899 shots) last season — 4th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.25
Valparaiso had 14.6 free throw attempts per game last season — tied for 9th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 19.2
Valparaiso has made 452 free throws this season — most among Missouri Valley Teams
Valparaiso averaged 24% free throw attempts for every field goal attempt (453 free throw attempts/1,899 field goal attempts) last season — 2nd lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 33%
Missouri State Defensive Stats & Trends:
Missouri State has forced 13.4 turnovers per game (363 turnovers/27 games) this season — best among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 12.1
Missouri State forced 9.2 turnovers per game (285 turnovers/31 games) last season — tied for 11th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 11.8
Missouri State averaged 29.1 defensive rebounds per game (902 rebounds/31 games) last season — 6th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.5
Missouri State allowed opponents to shoot 42% (805/1,937) last season — tied for 31st best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 44%
Valparaiso Defensive Stats & Trends:
Valparaiso has averaged 5.8 steals per game (157 steals/27 games) this season — 2nd lowest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 6.7
Valparaiso has allowed an average of 1.31 points per shot (2,034 points/1,549 shots) this season — tied for 20th highest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.24
Valparaiso has allowed opponents to shoot 47% (1,582/3,347) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 3rd highest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 44%
Valparaiso has allowed 75.3 points per game (2,034 points/27 games) this season — 3rd highest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 71.7
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