NCAA Basketball National Championship Exact Outcome Odds & Prediction

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(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Mar 30, 2022, 2:15 PM

It should be a terrific weekend of college basketball betting in New Orleans with four blue-bloods — Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, and Villanova — battling it out to make history.

Duke will take on North Carolina in one national semifinal where college basketball betting lines have the Blue Devils as a 4.5-point favorite. Kansas is also a 4.5 point favorite over Villanova in the other matchup.

To prepare you for the action, and give you a breather from digging into the NCAA basketball betting lines, we dissect each matchup and which two teams hold the most value when it comes to a bet on the national championship exact outcome.

NCAA Basketball National Championship Exact Outcome Odds

OutcomeOdds (as of March 30)
Duke to beat Kansas+300
Kansas to beat Duke+350
Kansas to beat North Carolina+475
Duke to beat Villanova+500
Villanova to beat Duke+850
North Carolina to beat Kansas +950
Villanova to beat North Carolina+1100
North Carolina to beat Villanova+1200

NCAA Basketball National Championship Exact Outcome Prediction

We start by taking a look at Duke and North Carolina battling it out for the first time in history in the NCAA Tournament.

The Blue Devils currently sit as 4.5-point favorites and that number feels about right. Duke’s offensive numbers are too much to overcome for the Tar Heels. The Blue Devils rank eighth in effective field goal percentage, 24th in offensive turnover percentage, and have the No. 1 offense in adjusted efficiency in the nation according to KenPom.

Although it will be a close one, Duke will be able to do enough with their talent and shotmaking to overwhelm North Carolina’s defense as they take the rubber match.

On the other side, Kansas and Villanova will play for a spot in the national championship with the Jayhawks also favored by 4.5 points.

The Wildcats will be without their second-leading scorer in Justin Moore and with how much firepower Kansas holds on the offensive end, it again feels like too much for the underdog to overcome.

Bryan Antoine will be called upon to step up for Villanova and since head coach Jay Wright runs such a tight rotation, the junior has seen just 9.5 minutes per game in 19 contests on the season.

Kansas would have been favored regardless, but the loss of Moore feels like the nail in the coffin.

Our matchup predictions leave us with Duke and Kansas battling it out in the national title game.

This could make for an incredibly entertaining final with NBA-level talent at nearly every position. The Jayhawks showed how high their ceiling is when they are firing on all cylinders with one of the most dominant halves of basketball we have ever seen beyond the first weekend in the NCAA tournament.

A 47-15 second-half margin over Miami was a spectacle to behold and if they can produce a run half as good as that one in the title game, it could be the difference.

With a wide gap in experience between these two teams, the Jayhawks have the age and savvy you desire when choosing a national champion.

The Pick: Kansas to beat Duke (+350)

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.