Blind Résumé Tests: Which of These Bubble Teams Belong In the NCAA Tournament?

It’s time for everyone’s favorite March Madness game of blind analysis.

Below are several sets of graphics showing key NCAA Tournament stats for a variety of bubble teams. Look at the graphics and decide for yourself – which of the three teams featured is the most deserving of a bid?

Then, you can scroll down to reveal the teams and decide if you agree with your own blind instincts. 

Blind Resume Test 1:  Having Some Fun

This one is a bit all over. If you like Team B, you may have pegged this as a classic mid-major profile with a strong record but fewer Quad 1 opportunities. This is VCU.

Team C is UCF, which looks to be clearly in the field. Team A is Auburn, which could go either way.

We could end up with all three of these teams in the field. But which one you preferred might hint at the sort of NCAA Tournament you’d prefer to see.

Blind Resume Test 2: High-Major Faceoff

Did you lean toward Team No. 3? If so, congrats: You think Stanford should make the NCAA Tournament over Texas A&M (Team 1) and West Virginia (Team 2). 

Currently, most bracketologists have Texas A&M clearly in the field and the other two clearly below the cutline. 

Blind Resume Test 3: Deserving Mid-Majors

The wins start to give the identities away at the end. Team 2 is, of course, Miami (OH), who finished the regular season undefeated but will still need to sweat out Selection Sunday to see if they make the NCAA Tournament. 

Team 3 is Santa Clara. The Broncos are generally seen as safely in the field after making it to the WCC championship round, where they led Gonzaga at halftime.

Team 1 is New Mexico, which has a great profile in the Mountain West but is still seen as on the wrong side of the bubble by most prognosticators as of Friday.

As for Team 4, that’s a small control team I inserted for context: Missouri Valley champion Northern Iowa, who has already won its tournament and secured an automatic bid. 

Check the delta on the stats between the true bubble mid-majors and a somewhat mundane mid-major champion like UNI. The profiles of teams like Miami, Santa Clara, and New Mexico are much closer to high-major tournament teams than that of Northern Iowa. Don’t let anyone tell you all mid-majors are the same. 

Blind Resume Test 4: They’re Virtually Twins!

Admittedly, I haven’t given you much here. But what do you think? Pretty compelling resumes at the top end, right?

Team 1 is St. John’s – an expected No. 5 seed, potential Big East Tournament winner, and darkhorse threat to play in the Final Four.

Team 2 is Cal, which will be lucky if it lands as high as the First Four Out committee castoff group. 

The key difference here, which I didn’t give you, is the Quad 2 game results. Cal was 2-3; St. John’s was 9-0. 

As is nearly always the case, tournament profiles come down to which data you choose to believe in… and which you choose to ignore.