North Carolina vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Feb. 4

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Duke head coach Jon Scheyer watches from the sideline against North Carolina State during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Raleigh, N.C., Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023.
(AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 04, 2023, 12:14 PM
  • Duke (16-6) are -3.5 point favorites vs North Carolina (15-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 145.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The North Carolina Tar Heels (15-7) visit Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on the Duke Blue Devils (16-6) on Feb. 4. Tip off is scheduled for 6:30pm EST in Durham.

Duke is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The North Carolina vs. Duke Over/Under is 145.5 total points.

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North Carolina vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
North Carolina+3.5 -115O 145.5 -110+135
Duke -3.5 -105U 145.5 -110-160

North Carolina vs Duke Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 57.3% confidence.

North Carolina vs Duke Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Duke, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • North Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 away games (+7.85 Units / 26% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.75 Units / 45% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 34 of their last 49 games (+11.75 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games at home (+9.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Duke have covered the 1H Spread in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)

North Carolina Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

North Carolina has gone 7-15 against the spread this college basketball season (-9.55 Units / -39.38% ROI).

  • 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -2.55% ROI
  • 10-12 when betting the Over for -3.2 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • 12-10 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 4.13% ROI

Duke Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Duke has gone 8-14 against the spread this college basketball season (-7.4 Units / -30.58% ROI).

  • 11-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 2.13% ROI
  • 9-13 when betting the Over for -5.3 Units / -21.9% ROI
  • 13-9 when betting the Under for +3.1 Units / 12.81% ROI

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina has a 41% free throw rate (543 free throw attempts/1,318 field goal attempts) this season — 3rd highest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 31%

North Carolina has 1,815 defensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — most among ACC Teams

North Carolina has a 41% free throw rate (543 free throw attempts/1,318 field goal attempts) this season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 31%

North Carolina has averaged 78.2 points per game (2,032 points/26 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 69.3

Duke Offensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has 661 assists at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — most among ACC Teams

Duke is shooting 42% (275/649) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 45%

Duke has averaged 13.5 offensive rebounds per game (298 rebounds/22 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 10.6

Duke has averaged 16.9 assists per game (661 assists/39 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 14.2

North Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina has averaged 29.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,815 rebounds/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

North Carolina has averaged 29.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,815 rebounds/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.4

North Carolina has averaged 29.0 defensive rebounds per game (637 rebounds/22 games) this season — 4th best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

North Carolina has forced 10.1 turnovers per game (262 turnovers/26 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 11.4

Duke Defensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has averaged 5.3 steals per game (117 steals/22 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.1

Duke has averaged 27.2 defensive rebounds per game (1,660 rebounds/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 17th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.4

Duke has forced 11.1 turnovers per game (679 turnovers/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 27th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 12.7

Duke has allowed opponents to shoot 31% from three (131/425) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 35%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.