North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Mar. 9

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Virginia head coach Tony Bennett reacts to a call during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, N.C., Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023.
(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 09, 2023, 11:04 AM
  • Virginia (23-6) is a -2.5 point favorite vs North Carolina (20-12)
  • Total (Over/Under): 129.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The North Carolina Tar Heels (20-12) visit Greensboro Coliseum to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (23-6) on Mar. 9. Tip off is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Greensboro.

Virginia is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The North Carolina vs. Virginia Over/Under is 129.5 total points.

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North Carolina vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
North Carolina+2.5 -110O 129.5 -110+120
Virginia -2.5 -110U 129.5 -110-145

North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Virginia will win this game with 55.7% confidence.

North Carolina vs Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Virginia, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+9.65 Units / 51% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.30 Units / 7% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.75 Units / 45% ROI)
  • North Carolina have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 48 games (+14.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.40 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+4.35 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)

North Carolina Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

North Carolina has gone 11-21 against the spread this college basketball season (-12.15 Units / -34.47% ROI).

  • 16-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -4.31% ROI
  • 14-18 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -16.48% ROI
  • 18-14 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 7.39% ROI

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has gone 11-17 against the spread this college basketball season (-7.7 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 19-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 6.52% ROI
  • 15-14 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -1.25% ROI
  • 14-15 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -7.84% ROI

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina has attempted 543 free throws this season — most among ACC Teams

North Carolina has 1,815 defensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — most among ACC Teams

North Carolina has a 41% free throw rate (543 free throw attempts/1,318 field goal attempts) this season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 31%

North Carolina has averaged 1.31 points per shot (1,728 points/1,318 shots) this season — tied for 36th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.24

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (159 assists/ 97 TOs) in the second half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

North Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina has averaged 29.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,815 rebounds/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

North Carolina has averaged 29.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,815 rebounds/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.4

North Carolina has averaged 29.0 defensive rebounds per game (637 rebounds/22 games) this season — 4th best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

North Carolina has forced 10.3 turnovers per game (631 turnovers/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 12.7

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.