Notre Dame vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Feb. 18

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Virginia head coach Tony Bennett reacts to a call during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, N.C., Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023.
(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 18, 2023, 11:12 AM
  • Virginia (20-4) is a -12.5 point favorite vs Notre Dame (10-16)
  • Total (Over/Under): 129.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN2

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-16) visit John Paul Jones Arena to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (20-4) on Feb. 18. Tip off is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Charlottesville.

Virginia is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).

The Notre Dame vs. Virginia Over/Under is 129.5 total points.

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Notre Dame vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Notre Dame+12.5 -110O 129.5 -110+550
Virginia -12.5 -110U 129.5 -110-800

Notre Dame vs Virginia Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Virginia will win this game with 72.8% confidence.

Notre Dame vs Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Notre Dame will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Notre Dame and Virginia, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Notre Dame has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games (+15.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games (+8.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 46 games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.90 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Notre Dame have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 43 games (+16.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+5.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the Spread in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Notre Dame Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Notre Dame has gone 7-19 against the spread this college basketball season (-13.9 Units / -48.6% ROI).

  • 10-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.85 Units / -11.88% ROI
  • 14-10 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 10.49% ROI
  • 10-14 when betting the Under for -5.4 Units / -18.88% ROI

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has gone 10-13 against the spread this college basketball season (-4.3 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 16-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.75 Units / 11.43% ROI
  • 13-11 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 3.41% ROI
  • 11-13 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -12.5% ROI

Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends:

Notre Dame has averaged 9.1 turnovers per game (201 turnovers/22 games) this season — 3rd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 12.2

Notre Dame has averaged 6.8 offensive rebounds per game (150 rebounds/22 games) this season — 3rd lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 10.6

Notre Dame has averaged 9.1 turnovers per game (201 turnovers/22 games) this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 11.6

Notre Dame has averaged 7.2 offensive rebounds per game (413 rebounds/57 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 10.7

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Notre Dame Defensive Stats & Trends:

Notre Dame has averaged 4.7 steals per game (104 steals/22 games) this season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Notre Dame has averaged 4.7 steals per game (104 steals/22 games) this season — 2nd lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 6.8

Notre Dame has averaged 5.0 steals per game (286 steals/57 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 13th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 6.6

Notre Dame has averaged 5.0 steals per game (286 steals/57 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.4

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.