Most Popular NCAA Tournament First-Round Upset Picks (According to BetMGM)

When it comes to March Madness, everyone has an opinion about which upsets are the right ones to pick. 

If you’re someone who puts a lot of faith in the wisdom of crowds, you might be interested in this short list of popular college basketball moneyline upsets. 

Alternatively, if you’re someone who likes to bet exactly the opposite of what the masses are doing, this information could also be helpful. 

As of March 18, these are the most commonly forecasted upsets from the upcoming early games in the 2026 NCAA men’s basketball Tournament, according to BetMGM online sportsbook players. I’ve listed them in ascending order of ticket volume. 

Troy 

Nebraska’s status as a winless NCAA Tournament team clearly isn’t impressing too many people. Troy is going off as a double-digit dog and is a staggering +650 to win the game outright and advance to the Round of 32. 

Nevertheless, the Trojans are a popular pick to score another first-round upset of a Big Ten team. (James Madison beat Wisconsin two years ago.)

High Point

Speaking of Wisconsin, the Badgers are in for a track meet on Thursday when they take the court against High Point. Both teams play fast and fire from beyond the arc.

High Point enters the NCAA Tournament with the longest active winning streak in college basketball, having lost its last game at Winthrop on Jan. 14. For bettors who believe in hot teams winning in March, High Point is a natural target.

South Florida

I’m a little surprised the sportsbook is even pricing this as an upset at this point. Louisville’s likely lottery pick Mikel Brown has officially been ruled out for this game, and so USF will put its 11-game winning streak on the line against a Cardinals team that doesn’t have its best player and second-leading scorer.

This game will be all about size and rebounding. Both teams have plenty of it and crash the boards on offense. The difference could be that Louisville has the bodies to clear possessions while South Florida got tons of offensive boards against second-rate AAC teams. 

Either way, the bigs will decide this game.

Prairie View A&M

The fact that a play-in No. 16 seed is the the No. 2 most bet moneyline underdog might surprise you, but it really shouldn’t. As a general rule, bettors like to play with a short horizon, spending their bankroll on whatever game is closest. Those later games can be bet… uhh, later.

So yes, this isn’t a first-round game, and this pick doesn’t help you much in filling out your bracket. But if you’re looking for midweek betting opportunities, Prairie View is a decent dart throw in its First Four game against Lehigh.

It’s not clear to me why the Mountain Hawks are favored in this game, let alone favored by a significant NCAA Tournament point spread like 3.5. Prairie View plays fast and is the better defensive team. They also do a much better job getting to the free throw line than Lehigh, which can matter in games like these where neither team is likely to have an effective bench presence.

Miami (OH)

The RedHawks are the story in college basketball right now, and seemingly everyone is lining up to bet them. They went 31-0, then immediately lost in the MAC tournament. Virtually everyone who pays any attention to college basketball had an opinion about their NCAA fate. Ultimately, they’re playing in the First Four finale on Wednesday night.

The market sees SMU as a comfortable favorite, which is backed up by metrics. Miami is a good team, but they were also monstrously lucky to get to 31-0. 

Regardless, a ton of bettors are loading up on Miami to win at a price better than 2-to-1. If the Redhawks advance to a Round of 64 game on Friday, you can bet they’ll be heavily bet then, too. 

Personally, I’m not too optimistic about Miami following in the footsteps of teams that went from the First Four to the Sweet 16, but I do think they’ll have a good shot to beat SMU in Dayton, at least. The Mustangs have been lousy away from Dallas this year, and the crowd will be aggressively rooting for Miami.