Sweet 16 Predictions: Odds & Best Bets for All Eight NCAA Tournament Games

As the Sweet 16 gets going this week, BetMGM has college basketball spreads, totals, player props, and more available for online sportsbook users.

In this article, I walk through my feelings on how to bet all eight games from Thursday and Friday’s March Madness schedule. 

Sweet 16 Odds

Purdue vs. Texas Prediction

Texas survived the first week of the NCAA Tournament and is officially the lowest seed remaining. One of the most popular questions of the week will revolve around how much further the Longhorns can make it.

As far as this game and its remaining West region matchups are concerned, Texas will struggle to ride its frontcourt size to easy offense like it did last week. Purdue’s bigs are older, more skilled, and likely to counteract the raw power of Texas center Matas Vokietaitis. 

I expect this game to be competitive, but Purdue will seize control in the final eight minutes and move the margin outside of the number.

Prediction: Purdue -7.5

Nebraska vs. Iowa Prediction

An interesting thing has happened with Nebraska during this tournament. Because of the Cornhuskers’ lack of historical success, many bettors and bracketeers targeted them for early losses due to historical and cultural biases.

But Fred Hoiberg is a good coach, and this Nebraska team is quite good. Yet against No. 9 seed Iowa in the Sweet 16, Nebraska is barely a favorite to win. 

It’s part of this pattern of market softness. No. 13 seed Troy was a favorite public upset target in the first round, and No. 5 Vanderbilt was a slight favorite last weekend.

I’ll lean into the Nebraska strength for at least one more round. 

Prediction: Nebraska -130

Arizona vs. Arkansas Prediction

I saw Chris Fallica share a stat this week that’s worth reproducing here. 

Arkansas head coach John Calipari has been an NCAA Tournament underdog 11 times since leaving UMass in 1996. He is 8-2-1 ATS in those games with seven outright wins.

There’s also the small matter of Arizona’s struggles to advance beyond the Sweet 16 over the last decade despite numerous high seeds.

The takeaway from that angle is to play Arkansas. A classic approach to this would be to play your preferred unit on Arkansas plus the points, then add an additional half-unit on the Arkansas moneyline.

The problem for me is that I really do believe in this Arizona team, and I think they’ll advance. I considered some Darius Acuff props, but the market seems incredibly priced out. That’ll happen when Bill Simmons leads a podcast talking about how good you are, I guess.

I’ll take the points with Arkansas, because I do think Calipari has something with this team. But I’ve structured a lot of my Survivor pool picks around Arizona making it another round or two, so I’m strictly in the “Arizona wins, Arkansas covers” corner of this market. 

Prediction: Arkansas +7.5

Houston vs. Illinois Prediction

As I wrote about in my latest March Madness odds analysis, the winner of this game could have a shockingly pedestrian walk to the national championship game. 

Given how good Kelvin Sampson has been at Houston, how can I not lay such a short number with the Cougars? Houston basketball odds should be an additional consideration in the futures market before this game tips off. 

Prediction: Houston -2.5

Duke vs. St. John’s Prediction

St. John’s is a really trendy dog in this spot with 65% of spread tickets and 79% of moneyline tickets at BetMGM. That alone should make the Johnnies radioactive.

I don’t care. St. John’s ball pressure and defensive approach will menace a team like Duke that doesn’t have its starting point guard available. 

St. John’s is a great dog to fire on at +230. I would respect anyone that zags with a Duke -6.5, but I think the actual on-court basketball reality makes St. John’s very dangerous. 

Prediction: St. John’s +6.5; St. John’s +230

Michigan vs. Alabama Prediction

This is the biggest point spread of the round, and there’s a good reason for that. 

Alabama has gotten a pretty easy draw thus far, with No. 13 Hofstra (limited) and No. 5 Texas Tech (best player hurt). So far, Alabama has been able to make it work without No. 2 scorer Aden Holloway, who was arrested for felony drug possession about 10 days ago. 

That all ends against Michigan, the current national championship favorite. The Wolverines are better, more whole, and fully capable of burying this incomplete Alabama team with 15 minutes to go in the second half. 

Prediction: Michigan -9.5

UConn vs. Michigan State Prediction

This game is being priced like a virtual toss-up, and I’ve been waiting for a good opportunity to go against UConn. 

Some bettors really like UConn for all the obvious reasons. Blue blood. Back-to-back titles with Dan Hurley a couple of years ago. Softer side of the bracket right now. Michigan State is more of a brand than a real contender these days. There’s some validity in all of those points.

But UConn hasn’t had an ascendant run through the back half of this season. It dropped random games to unworthy Big East opponents and lost two of three to St. John’s this season, including a bad blowout in the conference championship game two weeks ago. The Huskies looked stuck in second gear for a lot of last week. 

I have my quibbles with Michigan State this year, too. But I do trust Izzo and the No. 3 Big Ten team a bit more in this particular game. UConn will have to work harder to get its inside game going, and it probably won’t be the better rebounding team – an unusual position for UConn to be in. To me, that gives the advantage to MSU. 

Prediction: Michigan State +110

Iowa State vs. Tennessee Prediction

This is probably the game I have the least feel for. At this time, I have no personal stake on the game. But just reading the number, it does look a lot like a Tennessee bet. 

Iowa State is the No. 7 team in KenPom with the fifth-ranked adjusted defense. They force a lot of turnovers and shoot the ball well from behind the arc. And No. 6 seed Tennessee is… a 3.5-point dog?

It just reads to me as a game where the Vols are being quietly respected by market-makers, and so that’s the side I would lean toward. I have Iowa State in my brackets, but the sportsbook signals are always the better indicator.

Prediction: Tennessee +3.5; Tennessee +150

Sweet 16 Best Bets: NCAA Tournament 2026 (March Madness)

• Arkansas +7.5
• St. John’s +6.5
• Michigan -9.5
• Michigan State +110