Texas vs Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Jan. 21

Kentucky head coach Mark Pope gives instructions during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Clemson Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024, in Clemson, S.C. (AP Photo/Artie Walker Jr.)
(AP Photo/Artie Walker Jr.)
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  • Kentucky is a -7.5 point favorite vs Texas
  • Total (Over/Under): 154.5 points
  • Texas / Kentucky TV channel: SECN

The Texas Longhorns visit Rupp Arena to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Jan. 21. Tip off is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Lexington, KY.

Kentucky is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Texas vs. Kentucky Over/Under is 154.5 total points.

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Texas vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under=

Texas vs Kentucky Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Kentucky will win this college basketball game with 69.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Texas vs Kentucky Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Kentucky will cover the spread with 55.4% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Texas has hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 away games (+8.65 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.45 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+5.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 23 games at home (+2.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Kentucky have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 23 games at home (+2.00 Units / 8% ROI)

Texas Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Texas has a 9-8 record against the spread this college basketball season (+0.3 Units / 1.61% ROI).

  • 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.01% ROI
  • 10-7 when betting the Over for +2.3 Units / 12.3% ROI
  • 7-10 when betting the Under for -4 Units / -21.39% ROI

Kentucky Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Kentucky has a 8-10 record against the spread this college basketball season (-3 Units / -15.15% ROI).

  • 11-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -0.3% ROI
  • 8-10 when betting the Over for -3 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • 10-8 when betting the Under for +1.2 Units / 6.06% ROI

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends:

Kentucky averaged 89.1 points per game (2,673 points/30 games) last season — tied for best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 73.6

Kentucky shot 41% from three (299/739) last season — 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 35%

Kentucky averaged 89.1 points per game (2,673 points/30 games) last season — tied for best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 75.6

Kentucky shot 41% from three (299/739) last season — 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%

Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends:

Texas had an eFG% of 63% in possessions with at least six passes last season in conference play — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 53%

Texas averaged 1.49 points per shot (73 points/49 shots) in possessions with at least six passes last season in conference play — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 1.25

Texas averaged 1.28 points per shot (429 points/335 shots) in possessions with at least three passes last season in conference play — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 1.18

Texas has a 48% free throw rate (515 free throw attempts/1,066 field goal attempts) this season — highest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 37%

Texas Defensive Stats & Trends:

Kentucky averaged 89.1 points per game (2,673 points/30 games) last season — tied for best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 73.6

Kentucky shot 41% from three (299/739) last season — 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 35%

Kentucky averaged 89.1 points per game (2,673 points/30 games) last season — tied for best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 75.6

Kentucky shot 41% from three (299/739) last season — 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%

Kentucky Defensive Stats & Trends:

Texas had an eFG% of 63% in possessions with at least six passes last season in conference play — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 53%

Texas averaged 1.49 points per shot (73 points/49 shots) in possessions with at least six passes last season in conference play — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 1.25

Texas averaged 1.28 points per shot (429 points/335 shots) in possessions with at least three passes last season in conference play — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 1.18

Texas has a 48% free throw rate (515 free throw attempts/1,066 field goal attempts) this season — highest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 37%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.