- Missouri State is a -4.5 point favorite vs Valparaiso
- Total (Over/Under): 140.5 points
- Valparaiso / Missouri State TV channel: ESPN+
The Valparaiso Beacons visit Great Southern Bank Arena to take on the Missouri State Bears on Jan. 1. Tip off is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Springfield, MO.
Missouri State is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).
The Valparaiso vs. Missouri State Over/Under is 140.5 total points.
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Valparaiso vs. Missouri State Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Valparaiso | +4.5 -115 | O 140.5 -105 | +155 |
| Missouri State | -4.5 -105 | U 140.5 -115 | -190 |
Valparaiso vs Missouri State Prediction for Today:
The winning team model predicts Valparaiso will win this college basketball game with 52.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.
Valparaiso vs Missouri State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Missouri State will cover the spread with 66.1% confidence for today’s game.
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Valparaiso Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Valparaiso has hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- Valparaiso have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Valparaiso has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 17 of their last 30 games (+2.15 Units / 6% ROI)
- Valparaiso has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 15 away games (+2.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- Valparaiso have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 15 away games (+1.95 Units / 11% ROI)
Missouri State Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Missouri State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 31 games (+1.70 Units / 5% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+0.95 Units / 6% ROI)
Valparaiso Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)
Valparaiso has a 6-5 record against the spread this college basketball season (+0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI).
- 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -7.64% ROI
- 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
- 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
Missouri State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)
Missouri State has a 7-4 record against the spread this college basketball season (+2.6 Units / 21.58% ROI).
- 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -4.12% ROI
- 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
- 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
Valparaiso Offensive Stats & Trends:
Valparaiso averaged 1.10 points per shot (2,093 points/1,899 shots) last season — 4th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.25
Valparaiso had 14.6 free throw attempts per game last season — tied for 9th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 19.2
Valparaiso is shooting 80% from the free throw line (242/303) this season — best among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 72%
Valparaiso has 23.3 free throw attempts per game this season — tied for 40th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 19.5
Missouri State Offensive Stats & Trends:
Missouri State shot 31% from three (209/680) last season — 9th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%
Missouri State has a 40% free throw rate (299 free throw attempts/743 field goal attempts) this season — highest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 34%
Missouri State has averaged 12.2 assists per game (158 assists/13 games) this season — lowest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 15.0
Missouri State averaged 1.22 points per shot (2,192 points/1,799 shots) last season — 5th lowest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 1.27
Valparaiso Defensive Stats & Trends:
Valparaiso has averaged 5.2 steals per game (68 steals/13 games) this season — tied for lowest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 7.0
Valparaiso has averaged 5.2 steals per game (68 steals/13 games) this season — tied for 27th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 7.2
Valparaiso has allowed 72.4 points per game (941 points/13 games) this season — 5th highest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 70.8
Valparaiso has forced 12.1 turnovers per game (157 turnovers/13 games) this season — 5th lowest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 12.6
Missouri State Defensive Stats & Trends:
Missouri State averaged 29.1 defensive rebounds per game (902 rebounds/31 games) last season — 6th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.5
Missouri State forced 9.2 turnovers per game (285 turnovers/31 games) last season — tied for 11th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 11.8
Missouri State has forced 14.5 turnovers per game (189 turnovers/13 games) this season — best among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 12.6
Missouri State has allowed an average of 1.18 points per shot (3,108 points/2,642 shots) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 1.23
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