Virginia vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Feb. 28

Duke head coach Jon Scheyer watches from the sideline against North Carolina State during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Raleigh, N.C., Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023.
(AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker)
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  • Duke is a -10.5 point favorite vs Virginia
  • Total (Over/Under): 141.5 points
  • Virginia / Duke TV channel: ESPN

The Virginia Cavaliers visit Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on the Duke Blue Devils on Feb. 28. Tip off is scheduled for 12:00 pm in Durham, NC.

Duke is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-105).

The Virginia vs. Duke Over/Under is 141.5 total points.

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Virginia vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Virginia vs Duke Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Duke will win this college basketball game with 75.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Virginia vs Duke Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 59.2% confidence for today’s game.


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  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has a record against the spread this college basketball season ( Units / ROI).

  • away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • away total over record when betting the Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • away total under record when betting the Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Duke Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Duke has a record against the spread this college basketball season ( Units / ROI).

  • home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • home total over record when betting the Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • home total under record when betting the Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia averaged 62.7 points per game (1,944 points/31 games) last season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 74.5

Virginia shot 62% from the free throw line (260/416) last season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 73%

Virginia averaged 8.2 turnovers per game (255 turnovers/31 games) last season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 11.3

Virginia averaged 8.2 turnovers per game (255 turnovers/31 games) last season — tied for best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 11.6

Duke Offensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.7 (1,674 assists/ 1,005 TOs) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 3rd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Duke has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (1,155 assists/ 649 TOs) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.4

Duke has made 623 three-pointers at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among ACC Teams

Duke has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.7 (860 assists/ 516 TOs) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia allowed 59.2 points per game (1,835 points/31 games) last season — 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 72.0

Virginia has allowed 60.4 points per game (3,443 points/57 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 69.6

Virginia has allowed 60.4 points per game (3,443 points/57 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 69.6

Virginia allowed 25.9 points per game (803 points/31 games) in the first half last season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.5

Duke Defensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has allowed an average of 1.10 points per shot (6,525 points/5,907 shots) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.25

Duke has allowed opponents to shoot 39% (1,516/3,913) since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 43%

Duke has allowed 62.6 points per game (1,378 points/22 games) on the road since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 75.2

Duke has allowed an average of 1.10 points per shot (6,525 points/5,907 shots) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.23


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