Virginia vs Stanford Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Jan. 11

Stanford head coach Kyle Smith during an NCAA college basketball game against California in Berkeley, Calif., Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
  • Stanford is a -8.5 point favorite vs Virginia
  • Total (Over/Under): 125.5 points
  • Virginia / Stanford TV channel: ESPNU

The Virginia Cavaliers visit Maples Pavilion to take on the Stanford Cardinal on Jan. 11. Tip off is scheduled for 4:00pm EST in Stanford, CA.

Stanford is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (+100).

The Virginia vs. Stanford Over/Under is 125.5 total points.

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Virginia vs. Stanford Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Virginia+8.5 -120O 125.5 -115+290
Stanford -8.5 +100U 125.5 -105-375

Virginia vs Stanford Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Stanford will win this college basketball game with 79.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Virginia vs Stanford Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Stanford will cover the spread with 52.4% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 34 games (+10.80 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+5.76 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 19 of their last 34 games (+2.95 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 34 games (+0.50 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Stanford have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+2.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Stanford has hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+1.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Stanford has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 33 games (+1.80 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Stanford has hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+1.25 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Stanford has hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 33 games (+0.55 Units / 2% ROI)

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has a 6-9 record against the spread this college basketball season (-3.9 Units / -23.71% ROI).

  • 9-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 6.77% ROI
  • 7-8 when betting the Over for -1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI
  • 8-7 when betting the Under for +0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI

Stanford Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Stanford has a 9-6 record against the spread this college basketball season (+2.4 Units / 14.55% ROI).

  • 11-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -3.57% ROI
  • 7-8 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -10.37% ROI
  • 8-7 when betting the Under for +0.3 Units / 1.81% ROI

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has averaged 62.3 points per game (2,864 points/46 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 76.6

Virginia had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (474 assists/ 255 TOs) last season — tied for 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Virginia had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (474 assists/ 255 TOs) last season — tied for 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Virginia has averaged 62.3 points per game (2,864 points/46 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 76.6

Stanford Offensive Stats & Trends:

Stanford averaged 26% free throw attempts for every field goal attempt (176 free throw attempts/671 field goal attempts) last season — lowest among Pac 12 Teams; League Avg: 35%

Stanford has a 26% free throw rate (176 free throw attempts/671 field goal attempts) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among Pac 12 Teams; League Avg: 35%

Stanford has a 25% free throw rate (157 free throw attempts/622 field goal attempts) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among Pac 12 Teams; League Avg: 37%

Stanford had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (105 assists/ 67 TOs) in the first half last season — best among Pac 12 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia allowed 25.9 points per game (803 points/31 games) in the first half last season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.5

Virginia has allowed 26.7 points per game (1,229 points/46 games) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.3

Virginia allowed 59.2 points per game (1,835 points/31 games) last season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 71.5

Virginia has allowed 26.7 points per game (1,229 points/46 games) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.3

Stanford Defensive Stats & Trends:

Stanford allowed opponents to shoot 36% from three (247/687) last season — tied for 18th highest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%

Stanford averaged 5.7 steals per game (63 steals/11 games) last season — 2nd lowest among Pac 12 Teams; League Avg: 6.9

Stanford has allowed 6.0 made three-pointers per game this season — tied for 19th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 7.6

Stanford has allowed opponents to shoot 49% (207/419) in the second half this season — 2nd highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 44%


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