Will USC Make the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament?

USC is a bubble team in 2026. Still, it’s likely to make the NCAA Tournament this year thanks to the strength of the Big Ten and the increased committee focus on including major college athletics brands in the field of 68.

USC NCAA Tournament Resume

• USC KenPom: 47
• USC NET Ranking: 51
• USC Strength of Record: 37
• USC KPI: 37
• USC BPI: 46
• USC Quadrant 1 Record: 0-3

USC March Madness: Last Season

USC hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2023.

USC NCAA Tournament Prediction

I am predicting USC will make the NCAA Tournament but have to play in the First Four in Dayton. 

USC In the Final Four

If USC does ultimately play in the First Four, the Trojans would stand a decent chance to make a deeper run in the NCAA Tournament – especially if they’re playing as a No. 11 seed. The history of March Madness shows that’s a favorable path through the bracket.

As I lay out in my history of First Four teams that reached the Sweet 16, it’s actually pretty common for First Four winners to go on a tournament run. At least one First Four men’s team made the second round of the tournament every year from 2021 to 2024. 

As a team that would probably be in the field if the tournament started today, USC basketball odds in the Final Four market are surprisingly long at 80-to-1. Compare the Trojans to Texas, who are lower than USC on the S-Curve but priced at +6600 in the Final Four odds market.

Even if you’re only considering the number for CLV and a nice hedge position in a potential regional final game, USC in the Final Four at +8000 is a lucrative price.