NCAAF Home Teams: Who Has the Advantage in Week 11?

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BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Nov 11, 2021, 4:10 PM

Week 11 is approaching in college football, and that means another fresh batch of games for bettors to place their bets on.

BetMGM’s college football odds are out with some interesting lines for the home teams.

Which NCAAF home teams are worth betting on this week? These are some of my best picks.

Michigan State (-13) vs. Maryland

Part of the reason why I like the Spartans here is that they are coming off of a bad road loss to Purdue.

With that in mind, this could be the perfect opportunity for Michigan State to bounce back and make a statement to the CFP Committee.

The Spartans average a touchdown more per game than Maryland and may prove to be a handful with Heisman hopeful RB Kenneth Walker. The Terrapins allow 153 rushing yards per game, and Walker averages about 148 rushing yards per game on his own.

If Maryland cannot find a way to improve their rushing defense, it could be a long day for the Terrapins.

Oklahoma State (-13.5) vs. TCU

When it comes to ATS records, these two teams are about as lopsided as it gets. On the year, Oklahoma State has a 7-2 record ATS, while TCU is just 2-6-1 ATS.

Now, you have to add another factor to that, with TCU coming off of one of their biggest wins of the season, upsetting Baylor.

Oklahoma State only gives up about 16 points per game while TCU gives up 31. The Cowboys’ defense has been dominant the last two games, giving up just six points combined in those victories.

If Oklahoma State can keep up that level of play on defense, this might be a game worth keeping an eye on.

Penn State (+1) vs. Michigan

The Nittany Lions opened as a one-point favorite in this game, but the line has since shifted in Michigan’s favor.

The fact that Michigan is only a one-point favorite shows that oddsmakers have little faith in Jim Harbaugh’s program on the road.

Penn State has proven it can play with elite teams, with wins over both Wisconsin and Auburn already. This is their first big conference game at home this season and the whiteout effect at Beaver Stadium may give Penn State the edge they need to pull off the upset.

San Jose State (-4.5) vs. Utah State

Our last game here is one after dark on the east coast, with San Jose State hosting Utah State in a Mountain West clash. So, some may be wondering why this game stands out?

Well, it is because Utah State is leading the Mountain division in the conference and yet the Spartans are the favorites.

This year, the Spartans seem to play better against the better teams in the conference, with close losses to Nevada and San Diego State already. In comparison, the Aggies have not played well against some of the tougher competition so far, losing by double digits to Boise State and BYU.

Granted, the Aggies have the most total yards per game in the conference, but they also give up the third-most total yards in the conference. If San Jose State can take advantage of that defense and limit offensive opportunities, they may be a sneaky good pick to end the night.

Pick Your NCAAF Home Teams

These are four NCAAF home teams that I think are worth keeping an eye on this week. Do you agree, or do you think they will fail to cover?

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.