When it comes to college football betting, sometimes it doesn’t matter how good your team is; it matters how good they are at covering the spread. Some teams have a great win and loss record, but that doesn’t mean you should bet on them.
Take the Alabama Crimson Tide, for instance. They are 9-1 this season but only 6-3 against the spread. The same goes for Wake Forest, another 9-1 team with a mediocre 5-5 ATS record on the year. Sometimes you have to look a little deeper before placing your weekend wagers. So let’s look at which NCAAF home teams have the best chance to cover in Week 12.
San Diego State at UNLV (+10.5)
The division-leading San Diego State Aztecs head to the desert to take on the UNLV Rebels on Friday night at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The 9-1 Aztecs have a 5-1 conference record and are one game ahead of Fresno State. The Rebels aren’t in the running for a conference title this year but have a chance to rain on the Aztecs’ parade on Friday night with an upset victory.
After starting the year with eight straight losses, UNLV has now won its last two. But more interestingly for this game is that the Rebels are an impressive 7-3 against the spread this season, while the Aztecs have failed to cover the spread in three straight games and four out of the last five.
San Diego State’s offense only averages 332.4 yards per game, while UNLV averages 313.9, but SDSU averages 6.2 more points. However, on the defensive side of the ball, the Aztecs only allow 305.9 yards per game, which is 9th in the nation. UNLV is 91st with 411.6 yards per game. Because of that, I like the home team with a healthy 10.5 points in this one.
Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky (-10.5)
On Saturday, the Florida Atlantic Owls will travel to Bowling Green, Kentucky, to take on the 6-4 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
The Owls have struggled on the road this year with just one victory and are 3-3 in Conference USA play, good for 5th in the Eastern Division. In addition, Florida Atlantic has failed to cover the spread in three straight games and is just 4-5-1 ATS this year.
On the other side, the Hilltoppers are coming off of five straight victories, placing them first in the Conference USA East. In addition, Western Kentucky has been great against the spread this year at 7-3. I expect them to make it 8-3 when they overwhelm the Owls at home this weekend.
The Hilltoppers are 4th in the nation with 520.8 yards per game, while FAU gives up an average of 394.5 yards. The Owls also rank 63rd in passing defense (228.7/game), while Western Kentucky is first in passing offense (423.7). I believe that the Hilltoppers passing attack will allow them to cover the spread in this game easily.
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame (-17)
The Fighting Irish have played some great football on both sides of the ball since their bye week. Notre Dame is 9-1 and is taking a five-game winning streak into its weekend matchup against the 3-7 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Fighting Irish have averaged 32.3 points per game this season and face a Yellow Jackets defense that has struggled all season long, allowing 449 yards per game.
Notre Dame has also been great against the spread at 7-3, while Georgia Tech has struggled to a 4-6 record ATS. The Yellow Jackets have lost four straight, and I believe that their losing streak will extend to five in a Notre Dame romp. Therefore, I’m taking the Irish to cover in this one.
Which NCAAF Home Teams Do You Have This Week?
I think that the above NCAAF home teams have a great chance to cover this week and make good options for single games or a parlay bet. There are plenty of other games on tap, and it should be an exciting weekend of college football as the season inches closer to the finish line.
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