Nebraska vs Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Nebraska Cornhuskers are a -6 point favorite vs. the Michigan State Spartans
• Nebraska vs. Michigan State Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
• TV Channel: BTN

Nebraska (3-0) visit Spartan Stadium to take on Michigan State (2-1) on Sep. 26 in East Lansing, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00 pm.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6 (-108).

The Nebraska vs. Michigan State Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Nebraska vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Nebraska vs Michigan State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Nebraska will win this game with 55.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Michigan State Spartans, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Nebraska vs Michigan State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Nebraska will cover the spread with 53.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Nebraska Best Bets Today

• Nebraska have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 58% ROI)
• Nebraska has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• Nebraska has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.35 Units / 66% ROI)
• Nebraska has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 2% ROI)
• Nebraska has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Michigan State Best Bets Today

• Michigan State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
• Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Michigan State has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Michigan State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.50 Units / 21% ROI)

Nebraska Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nebraska Cornhuskers is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• Nebraska is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 3.06% ROI
• Nebraska is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
• Nebraska is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan State Spartans is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 60.61% ROI).

• Michigan State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 7.09% ROI
• Michigan State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
• Michigan State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Nebraska: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State

Nebraska is 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-14th-best in FBS; Average: .615

Nebraska was 7-2 (.778) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– 29th-best in FBS; Average: .624

Nebraska was winless (0-4) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .418

Nebraska was 1-4 (.200) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Nebraska

Michigan State is winless (0-6) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Michigan State is 2-8 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .493

Michigan State was 1-5 (.167) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459

Michigan State was 2-7 (.222) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

Matchup Notes for Nebraska vs. Michigan State

Michigan State’s TEs had 57 receptions in 12 games (4.8 per game) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Nebraska’s defense allowed just 14.1 receptions per game last season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State’s TEs had 57 receptions in 12 games (4.8 per game) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Nebraska’s defense allowed just 14.1 receptions per game last season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan State’s RBs averaged just 6.0 yards after the catch last season — T-24th-worst among FBS RBs. Nebraska’s defense allowed 8.8 RAC to RBs last season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Nebraska’s WRs has averaged just 11.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten WRs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 13.3 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nebraska’s RBs averaged 7.2 targets per game last season — T-6th-highest among FBS RBs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 4.7 receptions per game to RBs last season — T-5th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nebraska has averaged just 10.8 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten skill players. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 11.5 RAC since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Nebraska Offensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska TEs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 2.3

Nebraska Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 3.8 receptions (34 Rec/9 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 2.1

Nebraska RBs have picked up first downs on 11 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Nebraska Skill Players had no touchdowns on 27 receptions in close and late situations last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.5

Nebraska TEs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State’s TEs had 57 receptions in 12 games (4.8 per game) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Nebraska’s defense allowed just 14.1 receptions per game last season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State TEs had just one touchdown on 50 receptions last season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3

Michigan State have been sacked on 18% of pass attempts (17/95) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%

Michigan State have been sacked on 18% of pass attempts (17/95) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big Ten Offenses; Average: 7%

Michigan State have thrown 0 TDs on 40 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in close and late situations this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.8

Nebraska Defensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska allowed 8 rushing TDs on 390 carries (48.8 Carries Per TD) last season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 23.2

Nebraska has allowed a Completion Pct of just 45% (22 completions/49 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 57%

Nebraska has allowed just 98.0 receiving yards per game (1,274/13) to WRs this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 156.2

Nebraska had no interceptions and 14 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.2

Nebraska tackled opponents for a loss on 85 of 390 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Michigan State Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State has not recorded a sack (51 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.8

Michigan State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 29 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 12%.

Michigan State has no interceptions (51 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 31.0

Michigan State did not record a sack (51 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.8

Michigan State has not recorded a sack (51 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2

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