Injuries are as big a story in football spreads as they are in the playoff chase this week. Some teams with the best ATS records have taken a hit from the injury bug heading into Week 9. So depth charts are going to get closer looks before betting against the spread.
Still, there is a small number of teams that top the list. So keep reading for a closer look at the best NFL picks against the spread in Week 9 and see if the trend continues.
1. Dallas Cowboys
The leader in the NFC East is 6-1 on the season and 7-0 in the NFL against the spread. The Cowboys lost their only game of the season in Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Super Bowl champions were a 9-point favorite for the first game of the season.
Dallas exchanged the lead twice in that game, losing by a late field goal. But, even with a disappointing start, the Cowboys have won six in a row and now lead their division.
While winning those games, the Cowboys are now a top-three offense. They are fourth in passing yards, fourth in rushing, and third in the NFL in total offense. And with Dak Prescott sidelined last week with a calf injury, Cooper Rush kept the streak alive.
And this week, they host a struggling Denver Broncos team. Dallas is an 8.5-point favorite this Sunday. Nevertheless, they’re still one of the best NFL Week 9 picks against the spread.
2. Green Bay Packers
The NFC North leader took a similar route as the Cowboys to the second to best ATS record at 7-1. Green Bay got embarrassed by the New Orleans Saints 38-3 in Week 1. The Packers were 3.5-point favorites but were never in the game.
Green Bay has since won seven straight games, also knocking off the undefeated Arizona Cardinals. The Packers lead the NFC North by four games over the Minnesota Vikings. Now, with Aaron Rodgers out because of COVID protocols, they’re 7-point underdogs at Kansas City.
The Packers’ stats on offense don’t come close to matching the Cowboys, and with Jordan Love starting, I’m having a hard time believing that the Packers can cover this week.
3. Arizona Cardinals
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the next best ATS record belongs to the streaking Cardinals. During their 7-0 run, Arizona wasn’t getting much love from the oddsmakers. Yet they are 75% against the spread and leading the NFC West.
Arizona went into Cleveland in Week 6 as a 3-point underdog. The final score was Cardinals 37, Browns 14. So this week, when they visit the 3-4 49ers, I expect Arizona to cover the +2.5 spread.
But there is another team among the best ATS records. The Tennessee Titans match Arizona’s 75% against the spread. Yet the news of possible season-ending surgery for Derrick Henry could be devastating.
The Next Best ATS Record
Behind the top teams that are best NFL picks against the spread are two surging teams from the AFC. The Buffalo Bills have suffered from some lopsided point spreads. However, the Bills became early favorites to win offensive battles thanks to the outstanding play of Josh Allen.
Buffalo is 4-2-1 against the spread this year, which is 57.1%. They are 14.5-point favorites this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bills win games, but the point spreads work against taking them.
The Las Vegas Raiders have the same coverage percentage as Buffalo. However, since the change in coaching, the Raiders are 2-0 against the spread. They play the New York Giants next after their bye week.
It might be hard to believe, but the Colts and the Seahawks have better averages against the spread. Both are 5-3 for 62.5% records, yet both teams have struggled this year.
Consider These Best ATS Records When Making Your Picks
I still have trouble giving away 14.5 points, so I’m staying away from the Bills in Week 9. Instead, I believe that the Arizona Cardinals, who have one of the best ATS records, will cover easily. And I will be betting on the Raiders at -3 against the Giants.
Who are your best NFL Week 9 picks against the spread? Sign up for an account at BetMGM’s online sports betting site to place your bets on all of this weekend’s NFL action.