Week 11 presents some opportunities to make back underdogs with your NFL ATS picks. The Steelers and Cowboys find themselves as underdogs in two matchups that have significant implications for playoff seeding.
I’ll be discussing those two games and the Ravens vs. Bears matchup at Soldier Field. See below for the Week 11 NFL betting lines provided by BetMGM.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
- Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
- Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (+6)
Three underdogs have a chance to cover the NFL point spread and possibly win outright. Read on to find out how the games might play out.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
When making NFL point spread bets, it’s essential to keep an eye on the injury report. The Chargers announced that defensive tackles Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery are on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Bosa and Tillery have combined for eight sacks on the year, and the Chargers would miss them should they have to sit out against Pittsburgh.
The Steelers have injury concerns of their own. According to Mike Tomlin, Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is on the reserve/COVID-19 list and is unlikely to play. In addition, linebacker T.J. Watt suffered multiple injuries against the Lions last week, and his status for Sunday’s matchup is up in the air.
The Chargers’ defense has been abysmal against the run this year, and things could go from bad to worse if Bosa and Tillery have to miss the game. The Steelers’ injuries are concerning, but I like the Steelers to take advantage of the Chargers’ porous run defense.
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ finally looked like the defending AFC Champions again on Sunday against the Raiders, but I’m not sure they should be the favorites against Dallas.
This same Chiefs team that only beat the Giants by three points two weeks ago, then barely scraped by against the Jordan Love-led Packers in Week 9. Patrick Mahomes threw for 406 yards against the Raiders, but 254 yards came after the catch.
Mahomes has thrown ten interceptions this year, the third-most by any quarterback this year. The Cowboys’ defense has forced 14 interceptions for far in 2021, the third-best mark in the NFL. Mahomes may have taken advantage of a leaky Raiders secondary in Week 10, but Dallas is precisely the kind of team that can make him pay for errant throws.
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (+6)
Two factors will decide this Ravens vs. Bears game. First, can the Bears replicate what Miami did to Baltimore last week? The Dolphins used a Cover 0 defense to hold the Ravens to just 10 points in Week 10.
The Bears secondary can play, ranking 10th in the NFL against the pass this year. The other question is whether Justin Fields can continue to ascend. Fields threw for a career-high 291 yards against the Steelers two weeks ago and now gets to go up against a Baltimore pass defense that ranks last in the NFL in yards per game.
Making NFL ATS Picks for Week 11
With Justin Fields having a juicy matchup on Sunday, I like the Bears as one of my NFL ATS picks. The Steelers should be able to capitalize on the Chargers’ COVID-19 issues, and the Cowboys have a great chance to beat a Kansas City team that may be overhyped at the moment.
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