Did you know that underdogs are 109-97-1 against the spread through 14 weeks of the NFL season? That’s a cover rate of 52.9%.
That’s why selecting a few underdogs for your weekly NFL ATS picks is so vital. There are a few attractive dogs in this week’s NFL betting lines.
Read on for my top three NFL underdog picks this week.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2)
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for over 3,000 yards this season, and rookie RB Najee Harris ranks sixth in rushing yards. On defense, linebacker T.J. Watt leads the league with 16 sacks.
Despite that star power, the Steelers are 6-6-1. This week, they face a 9-4 Tennessee Titans team that’s struggled offensively for the past four weeks, averaging 17.2 points over that span.
They’re also struggling with turnovers. QB Ryan Tannehill threw 13 interceptions in 2021, with almost half (six) of them in the last five games.
Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 10th in turnovers (15), and their defense, though susceptible to the run (30th in average yards allowed per game), averages 2.8 sacks per game.
The Steelers haven’t won a game by more than seven points this season. Pittsburgh’s ability to win close games and Tennessee’s struggles to score make me think Pittsburgh can cover and win at home.
New England Patriots (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts come into this game with a red-hot offense averaging 34.3 points over the last three games. They also have the league’s most prolific rusher, RB Jonathan Taylor.
While ranked 19th against the run, the New England Patriots defense ranks third in total yards allowed per game (310). Teams also convert less than half (45.71%) of their red-zone trips to touchdowns against them. In addition, their defense only allows 15.4 points per game.
The Colts defense ranks first with 28 takeaways. Patriots rookie QB Mac Jones has played mostly clean football, throwing only eight interceptions this season.
If Jones and the Patriots limit their turnovers and stymie the Colts in the red- zone, I think they have a great chance to cover. I believe their defense should keep this game close and that their ability to stop teams on third-down (35.76% conversions against) and in the red zone should help them pull out the victory.
Washington Football Team (+5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have the top-ranked running attack in the league, averaging 160 rushing yards per game. Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts, a dangerous runner, has compiled 695 rushing yards this season.
The Washington Football Team is fifth in rushing defense, allowing an average of 93.6 yards per game. Over the last three games, WFT has given up an average of 77.3 yards per game.
Last week, Jalen Hurts sat out with an ankle injury. Though Hurts should start this week, that injury could slow him down enough to stall Philly’s running game.
A hobbled Hurts means Washington’s run defense can force Philly to pass the ball and take the Eagles out of their comfort zone. The Eagles rank 30th in passing yards per game. I believe that forcing them to pass will stall their drives, giving Washington more opportunities and allowing them to at least cover the spread, if not win the game outright.
The Best Underdog NFL ATS Picks This Week
I believe these underdog NFL ATS picks are the best options for bettors this week. I’m predicting that Hurts’ lingering injury will help Washington, the Patriots will remain the hottest team in the league, and the Steelers will win another close contest.
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