It’s do-or-die time as the NFL season enters the home stretch. The playoff picture is taking shape in both conferences, and a lot is on the line this week.
In examining the latest NFL odds, this week’s games appear to be very tight on paper. As of right now, there is only one game featuring a spread higher than a touchdown.
Here is a look at some intriguing NFL ATS picks for underdogs in Week 12.
New Orleans (+4) At Home Versus Buffalo
The Saints have lost their last three games and need a win to right the ship. Despite allowing 40 points against Philadelphia last week, New Orleans still ranks tenth overall in points allowed (21.8).
New Orleans lost the turnover battle the last three weeks, which is a significant factor in their recent struggles. Last week, the Saints turned the ball over three times. Unfortunately, Drew Brees is still retired, so the Saints must play a clean game to have success.
This season, the Bills have put up some impressive defensive, ranking first in yards allowed per game (283.7) and second in points allowed (17.6). However, much of that has come against weak opposition. The Buffalo defense struggles against more established offensive attacks like the Titans and the Colts. Both teams scored over 30 points against the Bills.
In two of the last three weeks, poor offensive outputs have also raised some red flags about the offense. Josh Allen has struggled with his accuracy throwing five interceptions during that stretch.
With both teams struggling, this game figures to be close. The Saints are an intriguing option as a home underdog getting four points. The Saints (+175) on the money line is also an option to consider.
Minnesota (+3) at San Francisco
After a 1-3 start Minnesota has surged back into the playoff picture. Wins over The Chargers and Packers the last two weeks have solidified the Vikings as contenders.
The Vikings offense has been hot, averaging over 30 points per game the last three weeks. In addition, Minnesota has elite skill-position players that allow them to stay in games.
Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson are among the league’s best offensive skill position players. Jefferson averaged 156 receiving yards in Week 10 and 11. He should again feature prominently in the attack this week.
San Francisco is home, but the 49ers struggle in Levi’s Stadium. They are 1-4 on their turf and are tough to trust as a home favorite against a contender.
The Vikings are an impressive 5-0 against the spread as underdogs this season. So consider Minnesota among the top Week 12 ATS picks.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Cincinnati
Another underdog to watch is the Pittsburgh Steelers. At 5-4-1, the Steelers are still right in the midst of the playoff race in a very competitive NFC North. This game should be another tightly contested divisional battle between two well-matched teams.
While Cincinnati poses a formidable threat, the betting trends favor Pittsburgh. Cincinnati is 0-2 against the spread as a home favorite this year. Meanwhile, The Steelers have relished the underdog role going 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
I believe this is a winnable game for the Steelers if they can limit Cincy’s big-play potential and generate one or two turnovers. Even if they don’t pull out the win, this game could be decided by a field goal or less.
At +3.5, the Steelers are an NFL ATS play to keep on your radar.
NFL ATS Picks and Underdog Bets
Week 12 should be exhilarating with intriguing matchups, upsets, and playoff implications. When examining the NFL betting slate, keep an eye on New Orleans, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh as potential NFL ATS picks.
Check BetMGM’s online sports betting site for the latest odds on all Week 12 action. Then, create an account and place bets on all of this season’s NFL action.