Week 14 brings many intriguing matchups, including some favored teams that offer bettors tons of value.
I’ve scouted the NFL betting lines and found three favorites that I think will cover the spread this week.
Here’s a look at my NFL best bets for Week 14.
Cowboys (-4) at Washington
Last Thursday, the Dallas Cowboys completed a stretch of three games in 12 days.
They’ve finally been able to rest up and get healthy after a disappointing past few games where they lost to the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs.
This Cowboys team is still elite. Despite CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Tyron Smith making appearances on the injury report recently, Dallas has still averaged 29.5 points per game in their last four.
I don’t believe that Washington Football Team’s 30th-ranked pass defense can stop a Cowboys offense ranked fourth in passing yards per game, especially with the players I listed above off of the injury report. With Lamb, Cooper, and Smith finally back on the field together versus the Saints, the Cowboys won their first game since Nov. 14th.
I also have little faith in Washington’s offense. Even though they’ve put up a combined 669 yards in their past two games, they’ve only scored a combined 34 points. This is a prime example of why Washington is ranked 29th in red zone scoring percentage. They can move the ball well but can’t finish drives with points.
I will gladly take the Cowboys this Sunday.
Giants at Chargers (-10.5)
Last Sunday, the Los Angeles Chargers completely dismantled the Cincinnati Bengals, winning 41-22 on the road.
Now they head home to face a New York Giants team that’s down two quarterbacks. With Daniel Jones and backup Mike Glennon injured this week, the Giants had to sign Jake Fromm from the Buffalo Bills’ practice squad to play under center this Sunday.
Fromm has never started a game in his NFL career, and with the Giants’ lack of weapons, I don’t think Fromm will have much success. The Chargers have the 13th highest blitz rate per dropback (25.5%) and the sixth highest pressure rate per dropback (27.6%). It’s hard for me to imagine that a young quarterback, getting his first start in the NFL after signing with a new team, can handle that pressure and keep up with a Chargers offense that is ninth in points scored per game (26.2).
Making things worse for New York, the Chargers are 5-2 ATS when they and their opponents have equal rest, which they’ll have in this matchup.
I expect a Chargers blowout at home this week.
Bills at Buccaneers (-3)
I’m honestly surprised the Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t favored by more in this game.
First, the Bucs are at home, where they are undefeated this year.
The Bills are also going into this game without a key defensive player. After losing star CB Tre’Davious White to an ACL injury, the Bills are going to have a tough time stopping the Buccaneers’ number one-ranked passing offense (311.1 yards per game).
The Bucs also have the number one rushing defense in the NFL (24.3 yards allowed per game), the fourth most sacks (32), and the fifth most interceptions (14).
Also, the Bills seem to have trouble with the top-tier competition. Sure, they have a win against the Chiefs, but they’ve struggled against other top teams, like the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, and New England Patriots.
I’m taking the Bucs in this matchup.
NFL Best Bets: Week 14 Favorites
Do these picks look like some of Week 14’s NFL best bets? Which one is your favorite?
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