NFL Best Bets: Top Three Wagers for Favorites in Week 16

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BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Dec 21, 2021, 3:39 PM

Week 16 could define the season for many teams. When it comes to NFL best bets, you might want to consider teams that are favored if you’re looking to maximize your value.

This week, let’s look at the NFL odds for the top three wagers for favorites.

San Francisco 49ers (-3)

On Thursday Night Football, the San Francisco 49ers (8-6) will travel to face the Tennessee Titans (9-5).

San Francisco has won five out of its last six games by an average of 14 points. On the other hand, Tennessee has gone 3-3 since losing running back Derrick Henry. In those three defeats, they’ve lost by an average of almost 13 points.

The 49ers have averaged 26.7 points in each of their last three matchups. Tennessee has averaged 15.5 points in their previous three games.

Last week at home against the Atlanta Falcons, Jimmy Garoppolo completed 78.3% of his passes for a 123.7 passer rating. San Francisco’s ground game amassed 162 yards with three rushing scores. The 49ers won easily, 31-13.

Tennessee’s rushing defense ranks second in the league at yards allowed, but they rank 20th at passing defense, giving up 242.3 yards per game.

San Francisco has averaged 3.3 touchdowns in their previous three contests. Tennessee has averaged half that amount. San Francisco averaged 28 points per game in November, while Tennessee has averaged under 20 points per matchup without Henry.

I don’t think the Titans can keep up with San Francisco’s passing attack, so I’m taking the 49ers to win and cover.

Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

On Christmas Day, the Green Bay Packers (11-3) will face the Cleveland Browns (7-7). The Packers clinched the NFC North after last week’s 31-30 road victory against the Baltimore Ravens.

Aaron Rodgers threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns, solidifying his candidacy for MVP, which he won last season.

Green Bay has now won three straight, averaging a league-best 37.3 points in that span. On the other hand, Cleveland has averaged 16 points in their last three games.

Last Monday, the Browns were without half-a-dozen starters in their 16-14 home loss against the Las Vegas Raiders.

In their previous three games against teams with a winning record, the Browns have given up an average of 27.6 points per matchup.

The Packers are 11-3 ATS this season, while Cleveland is 6-8.

Among NFL best bets, I like Green Bay to cover at home on Saturday this week. I think that Green Bay’s offense will be too much for the Browns to keep up with. Green Bay has the 12th-ranked rushing defense (107.9 yards per game) and the ninth-ranked passing defense (217.9). Given Cleveland’s recent offensive struggles, I don’t think they’ll be able to move the ball against the Packers.

Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)

On Sunday in Week 16, the Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) will travel to face the Houston Texans (3-11). As the sixth seed in the conference, the Chargers remain two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West.

The Chargers lost to the Chiefs last Thursday night, 34-28. Justin Herbert threw for 236 yards with a pick and a touchdown pass. Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler split running back duties. The duo combined for 25 carries for 145 yards and a score.

Herbert connected with nine different receivers, but Patrick Mahomes threw two touchdown passes to tie the game twice in the fourth quarter. He threw a third touchdown in overtime to get the victory.

This week, the Chargers will face the Texans, who rank 31st in the NFL at scoring. In their previous three matchups, Houston has averaged only one passing touchdown per game and 14.3 points.

Los Angeles has averaged 35.3 points in each of their previous three contests.

The Chargers also rank first in the league at scoring touchdowns in the red zone. The Texans’ defense ranks fourth-worst at points allowed this season at 26.6 per game and 21st at red zone scoring defense (touchdown scored 61.11% of red zone trips).

I believe the Chargers will cover easily.

NFL Best Bets Among Favorites in Week 16

How about you? What are your NFL best bets among favorites this week? Don’t forget to make your Week 16 picks at the best online sportsbook, BetMGM. Sign up for an account today for a risk-free initial bet of up to $1,000.

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.