Over-unders can be a good opportunity for bettors to invest in games they don’t see an advantage on the spread. Other players prefer wagering the totals.
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Which ones stand out in Week 12? These are five over/under bets that I like.
Browns vs. Ravens Under 46.5
When it comes to picking the under in these bets, I usually like to pick teams that are good at running the ball. In this case, the Browns and Ravens are the best and third-best rushing teams in the league.
Cleveland and Baltimore are also both very good at controlling the clock. The Ravens lead the league in time of possession per game (33:27), and the Browns are sixth (31:48).
With two teams that like to run the ball and control the clock, I would expect limited opportunities for scoring here.
Buccaneers vs. Colts Over 51.5
This matchup is currently the highest total on the board, and that does not scare me away.
These are two of the top five offenses in the NFL. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in points per game (30.9), and the Colts are fifth (28.1) in that category.
The only hesitation on this side would be if the Buccaneers can neutralize Jonathan Taylor. He leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,122) and rushing touchdowns (13) on the season but will now have to face the league’s best rushing defense, which only allows 78.4 rushing yards per game.
No team has yet been able to stop Taylor, though I expect the Bucs to slow him. With two high-scoring offenses like these, a shootout is imminent.
Titans vs. Patriots Under 44.5
This total raises my eyebrow, considering that the Patriots have scored 70 points in their last two games, and the Titans average 26.5 points per game. So, why back the under here?
On the Patriots’ side, they have the best total defense in the NFL, allowing a league-low 16.1 points per game. As for the Titans’ side, this season shows that teams with good rushing defenses can hold the Patriots.
Tennessee allows the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (97.2), and New England has faced two of the teams ranked higher in this category. Those two were Tampa Bay and New Orleans, where the Patriots scored a combined 30 points.
If that trend continues and the Patriots’ defense remains effective, I like the chances of an under here.
Chargers vs. Broncos Under 47.5
The Broncos are reliable under bet. They’ve gone under the total in eight games this season. Add on to that that the Chargers rank last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (145.1).
These stats tell me that the Broncos will likely try to run the ball on them and control the clock. However, going into this game, they are already eighth in the NFL in time of possession per game (31:34), so if their running game is efficient, offensive opportunities will be limited.
Seahawks vs. Washington Under 46.5
To me, the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL to pick an under game on this season. Seattle’s games have gone under the total eight times so far this year.
On top of that, I do not think Russell Wilson has been the same since he has come back from his finger injury. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in either game since his return.
Neither of these teams generally score points, averaging a combined 40 per game. I expect those trends to continue here.
See More Over-Unders
These are some of my best over-unders for Week 12. Do you agree, or do you have other totals in mind?
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