Week 12 is here, and we’re one week closer to the playoffs. The league’s best teams, however, have not separated themselves from the pack. I believe there are six teams with a legitimate shot to win the AFC and NFC.
This league parity also means there is a lot of value in backing home favorites for this week’s NFL betting lines.
Read on to find out which home teams I think are the best NFL betting picks this week.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
If the Week 11 game against the Raiders taught me anything about the Bengals, it’s that they’re learning how to win when Joe Burrow isn’t at the top of his game.
Burrow struggled against the Raiders, throwing for a career-low 148 yards. Running back Joe Mixon, however, rushed for 123 yards and two touchdowns.
The Steelers are a team that won’t go away. After starting the season 1-3, they’ve managed to claw their way back into playoff contention. They’ve managed a 5-4-1 record despite scoring an average of 21.4 points per game and allowing 22.6.
They even covered a 6.5 spread on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers while missing crucial defensive stars Minkah Fitzpatrick, T.J. Watt, and Joe Haden. But, unfortunately, I don’t think heart will be enough this week.
The Steelers pass defense ranks 15th in yards allowed (240.7). However, Burrow should have a rebound game against an injured Steelers’ defense, and Pittsburgh’s offense, which only averages 328 yards per game, won’t keep up.
New England Patriots (-5.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
The Pats boast the league’s stingiest defense, allowing only 16.1 points per game.
Quarterback Mac Jones continues to look like he should’ve been the first quarterback picked in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Jones doesn’t have a lot of flashy stats (he’s only thrown for over 300 yards once this season), but he’s thrown for 14 TDs and only eight interceptions.
The Titans are still without their rushing star Derrick Henry. They signed veteran Adrian Peterson, but the Titans running game averaged only 79.3 yards per game the past three weeks.
The pressure is now all on QB Ryan Tannehill. Over the past three weeks, Tannehill’s thrown only three touchdowns. During that span, he’s also thrown five interceptions.
Without Henry, Bill Belichick can focus his defensive game plan around frustrating Tannehill. I believe the Patriots will win the turnover battle and cover the 5.5 as one of the best Week 12 favorites.
Green Bay Packers (-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Packers are a staggering 9-2 ATS this season, and they face a Rams team that I think is struggling to find its chemistry after adding OLB Von Miller and WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Both teams came up short in their previous games. The Rams lost a shocker against San Francisco in Week 10, where their potent offense only managed to score 10 points and covert three third downs.
The Packers lost to their rivals, the Minnesota Vikings, in a 34-31 shootout. In the end, the Packers didn’t help themselves, racking up 92 yards in penalties.
At times this season, the Rams offense has looked otherworldly. They’ve gained over 400 yards in four games this season. The 49ers, however, held them to only 278, with only 52 on the ground.
The most significant factor this week will be the weather. The weather forecast at Lambeau Field this coming Sunday predicts an afternoon temperature of 38°F. However, it’s expected to drop to 25°F before the game’s end.
I predict a Rams’ offense struggling to rediscover its swagger will have a tough time in the cold Green Bay weather. Therefore, I believe the Packers -1 is a high-value pick.
NFL Betting Odds Value Home Favorites This Week
I believe that the Bengals, the Patriots, and the Packers are the best home favorites this NFL betting week. I expect each of these teams to cruise to an easy cover.
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