Home team favorites might serve as your best bets in Week 13. The current NFL betting lines show that the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills should be high on your list.
Here are the top NFL betting lines for home team favorites this week.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-3)
In theory, betting on the favorite gives you the best chance to win. Still, you’ll want to make sure you place your wagers on the outcome that gives you the most value.
The Bills are 2-2-1 ATS as the home favorite this season. For their Monday Night Football matchup against the New England Patriots, Buffalo is currently favored by three points.
It’s not a bad bet, but keep in mind the Patriots have won and covered in six straight games.
Buffalo blew out the New Orleans Saints last week on Thanksgiving Day (after getting torched by the Indianapolis Colts in the previous week). So, getting a few more extra days of rest than the Pats could be beneficial.
New England had no problem beating the Tennessee Titans last week, 36-13. They’ve averaged an astounding 35 points per game during their current six-game winning streak.
I don’t see the Patriots putting up that many points against the Bills, though. Buffalo’s defense ranks sixth against the run (96.6 yards per game) and second against the pass (178.5). But more importantly, they rank first in quarterback pressure percentage, pressuring the quarterback on 30.2% of dropbacks. So I believe that they’ll make life uncomfortable for Mac Jones.
I’d take the Bills for Monday Night Football.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Additional NFL betting lines for top-tier teams at home include the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are favored by three points against the Los Angeles Chargers for their Sunday afternoon matchup.
The Bengals at -160 for the money line is a bit high since they’re coming off a massive 41-10 victory last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
This season, Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS as the home favorite, but they are starting to play at a high level consistently. Still, they’ll be hosting the 6th best passing offense in the NFL.
However, the Chargers have the league’s worst rushing defense, and they’re taking on a team that just ran for 198 total rushing yards against Pittsburgh.
Again, bettors seem to be leaning toward the Bengals to cover (-115) at home against the Chargers.
An over-under at 50.5 also shows that we can expect a high-scoring game. I wouldn’t be surprised if that line moved up to 53 or more around kickoff time.
I’d take the over here as well. I don’t anticipate the Chargers at Bengals to be a defensive battle at all. Cincinnati is 2-1 for the over as the home favorite.
If you’re not comfortable with the Bengals to cover, you might want to bet the over for a similar payout.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
The Chiefs are another AFC team starting to regain some ground it lost earlier in the season. They now hold the top spot in the very competitive AFC West.
They’ll be hosting their divisional rival Denver Broncos in Week 13.
Kansas City is on a four-game winning streak. They’re currently favored by a whopping 9.5 points for their Sunday Night Football matchup against Denver.
That seems a bit high, and the money line at (-450) is an easy pass, in my opinion.
The over-under at 47.5 might be your best bet. The Chiefs are 2-4 as the home favorite for the over. They have only hit the over in five games.
A final score of 27-20 is certainly foreseeable. So, the line where it stands might be a worthwhile bet for the under. Denver has an over-under record of 2-9.
Make Your Bets Today
What do you think? Which NFL betting lines are favorable to you when it comes to home team favorites this week?
Check out BetMGM’s online sportsbook for the latest odds. Then, place your wagers on all of this season’s NFL action.
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