In the company of their home crowds, some teams cover as favorites at a very profitable rate. For example, Tampa Bay and Houston are both 3-1 ATS at home this season.
With many home favorites on the NFL betting lines this week, bettors have numerous opportunities to find value.
Read on to see which teams I like to cover the spread at home in Week 11.
Texans at Titans (-10.5)
Even without Derrick Henry, the Titans have still looked like one of the best teams in the AFC.
They’ve been so dominant; in fact, they’re 7-0 against teams that made the playoffs last season.
Tennessee has beaten the Colts, Rams, and Saints in their last three games. Through those three games, their offense has averaged a formidable 28.3 points.
Unfortunately, the Texans haven’t had as much to boast about this year. They’re currently last in the league in points (14.2) and yards (280.1) per game.
Even if the Texans put up more points than they usually do, I still expect the Titans to cover easily behind their potent offense. This year, Tennessee is consistently an NFL best bet, which won’t change in Week 11.
Steelers at Chargers (-5.5)
In my opinion, people place too much value on the Steelers. Big names like Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger demand respect in the history books, but we’re living in the present.
The Steelers’ offense has looked stagnant most of the time this year, and their 27th ranking in yards per play is evidence of that.
They’ve just struggled to move the ball efficiently, even against subpar defenses. For example, they could only muster 15 points versus the 20th ranked Browns defense.
The Chargers are coming off a disappointing performance but are a much more well-rounded team. Los Angeles also has more offensive weapons I can trust, like Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams.
These weapons are especially deadly in the red zone, where the Chargers are 12th in the NFL in red-zone scoring percentage (62.16%).
I think this is a great bounce-back spot for Los Angeles and like them to cover at home in this NFL Week 11 game.
Giants at Buccaneers (-10.5)
Wow, two unpredictable losses for the Bucs in a row. I would not bet on another one happening this week, though. I could even see a Tampa Bay blowout win at home versus the Giants.
Sure, the Buccaneers have been struggling a bit recently, but Tom Brady always finds a way. With Antonio Brown hinting at a return this week, Brady could finally get his favorite downfield threat back.
Brown’s return would further open up their stellar passing attack, a category in which they already rank 1st in pass yards per game.
That’s terrible news for the Giants, as they only rank 19th in passing defense, allowing 249.9 yards per game through the air.
The Bucs are a perfect 3-0 ATS as a 10.5-point favorite or more this season at home, and I believe they can keep that record perfect this week.
NFL Betting: Home Favorites in Week 11
With plenty of home favorites to bet on this upcoming week, I think these three have the most value.
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