Favored road teams can provide bettors with hidden value in certain instances.
After researching this week’s NFL betting odds, I’ve found a few matchups where I feel like the favored road team has the betting edge.
With seven road favorites on the NFL Week 11 schedule, I think these three bets produce the most potential value.
Ravens (-6.5) at Bears
Last Thursday, the Ravens got a wake-up call on primetime television, losing to the lowly Dolphins, 22-10.
I expect them to come out firing on all cylinders in this game, fueled by their last defeat.
Baltimore is currently tied for 1st place in the league in rushing yards per game (154.1). Quarterback Lamar Jackson currently leads the team in rushing yards and could cause a lot of trouble for a Bears defense that only ranks 23rd in rush defense (122.8/game).
Even if the Bears somehow successfully stopped the Ravens attack, I don’t see them putting many points on the board, with Matt Nagy’s 29th ranked offense only averaging 16.7 points a game.
I will confidently back the Ravens on the road in this matchup.
Dolphins (-3) at Jets
I don’t particularly like betting on either of these teams, but there is undeniable value on the Dolphins in Week 11.
There isn’t much to brag about concerning the Dolphins; however, they are trending in the right direction after consecutive wins.
I also expect the Dolphins to continue to deploy (and have success with) the pre-snap Cover 0 look that made their defense look unpenetrable last week.
I think teams are starting to key in on his check-down focused passing attack, and the pressure created by the Dolphins’ pressure Cover 0 blitzes should cause Joe Flacco some issues.
49ers (-6.5) at Jaguars
The 49ers embarrassed the Rams on Monday Night Football last week, and I think their momentum will carry over against a much worse team in the Jaguars.
This pick boils down to the vast coaching advantage the Niners have in their favor. We just saw Kyle Shanahan completely outclass Sean McVay, and now he faces one of the most unproven coaches in the NFL, Urban Meyer.
I will be astonished if Meyer’s 31st ranked offense can score more than two touchdowns against this physical San Fransisco defense. The Jags are a consistent under-winner for sports betting enthusiasts, going 2-7 on the season.
The 2-7 Jaguars have the 27th-ranked passing offense in total yards; unfortunately, they’ll be going up against the 49ers’ 6th ranked passing defense this week.
It might be tempting to look at Jacksonville’s win versus the Bills a couple of weeks ago and opt to take them as underdogs in this spot. However, I don’t think that betting a team based on one win is very profitable.
NFL Betting Odds for Week 11
Do you like any of these road favorites in Week 11?
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