NFL Betting: Are the Packers or Chiefs the Top Favorite in Week 16?

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BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Dec 22, 2021, 3:11 PM

Your best NFL betting opportunities in Week 16 might include the league’s hottest teams. The top favorites from either conference are at home this week.

Which one is the better option? Let’s take a closer look at the odds for these favored teams.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) host the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1). The Chiefs are two games ahead in first place in the AFC West with three games to go.

The Steelers are currently the ninth seed in the AFC playoff picture, right behind their divisional rivals, the Baltimore Ravens. They pulled off a 19-13 upset victory at home last week against the Tennesee Titans.

Kansas City’s last loss was against the Titans in Week 7. Since then, they’ve won seven straight games, averaging 28 points per contest in that span. During their winning streak, the Chiefs have won by an average of almost 15 points per game.

While Kansas City’s defense has improved during their win streak, they remain 19th in the NFL at stopping the run. Pittsburgh, however, ranks 31st in rushing defense, giving up an average of 183.3 rushing yards over their last three games.

The Chiefs rank 28th in passing defense, while the Steelers rank 11th. Pittsburgh has allowed 243.7 passing yards on average this season on the road.

Can the Steelers put enough points on the board to keep up with the Chiefs? Kansas City has averaged a whopping 34.7 points in their last three games. Pittsburgh has averaged 22.3 in their previous three contests and allowed 27.5 points on average in their previous seven games.

However, only three out of 14 games that the Steelers played this season were decided by 10 points or more.

The Chiefs have placed 13 players in COVID-19 protocols, including top receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, so one key to a Chiefs cover might be a renewed outing from the ground game. Kansas City has just 13 rushing touchdowns on the season, but it’s scored five rushing touchdowns in its last three matchups.

Pittsburgh only allows a touchdown on 48.98% of opponents’ trips to the red zone, the fourth-best mark in the league. I believe Kansas City’s running game will help it finish off long drives in the end zone, so I’m expecting them to win and cover in this game.

Green Bay Packers (-7)

The Green Bay Packers (11-3) will host the Cleveland Browns (7-7) in Week 16. The Packers clinched the NFC North last week with a 31-30 road victory over the Ravens.

Green Bay is the first team to earn a playoff spot in the NFL’s new 17-game format.

Aaron Rodgers threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns last week. He’s now a top contender for this year’s MVP award, which he won last season.

The Browns lost on Monday night after having their game moved from Saturday, thanks to several players testing positive for COVID-19. Baker Mayfield and primary backup Case Keenum were unable to play.

Nick Mullens threw for 147 yards and one touchdown in a 16-14 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. Mayfield is expected to get the start on Christmas Day.

Cleveland could also get wide receiver Jarvis Landry, running back Kareem Hunt, and tight end Austin Hooper back on Saturday. The Browns will need all the offense they can get against Green Bay.

The Packers have scored at least 31 points in their previous four games, while the Browns have averaged 15.25 points in that same span.

The Browns are eighth in passing yards allowed per game (216.1), but they allow 263.5 passing yards per road game, which is 29th in the league. That’s about what the Packers have averaged on offense at home this season.

I like the Packers to win this game because of their passing attack and the Browns’ poor pass defense on the road. I also don’t believe that Cleveland’s unhealthy offense can keep up with Green Bay.

NFL Betting: Top Favorite in Week 16

I believe that the Green Bay Packers are the top favorite in Week 16. They’ve got an all-time great quarterback playing MVP level football.

What do you think? Which team is your top favorite this week?

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BetMGM Staff

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.