Playing at home is usually an advantage because players and coaches don’t have to travel. They also feel more comfortable in their own environment. However, some home-field advantages are better than others.
In Week 14, some intriguing home favorites provide us with value against the spread.
This week, the current NFL betting odds show ten home favorites, making up about 77% of all games.
With so many home favorites to choose from, I’ve spotted three teams that I think give bettors the most NFL betting value.
Bills at Buccaneers (-3)
Last Monday, we saw the Patriots attempt only three passes the entire game. And even though the Bills knew that the Patriots were going to run almost every play, they still allowed 222 rushing yards.
That performance makes me question the Bills’ defense and makes me wonder how they’ll contain the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rank second in yards per game.
The Bills will also be without their star CB Tre’Davious White after he tore his ACL two weeks ago. Against the Buccaneers, who throw the most passes in the NFL per game (43.1), losing White will leave a massive hole in the defense.
I like the Buccaneers to cover the spread at home versus a compromised Bills defense. As long as the line stays at -4.5 or below, I’m taking the Bucs.
Rams at Cardinals (-3)
Kyler Murray is back, and the Arizona Cardinals look fantastic. Even with Colt McCoy in while Murray was injured, the Cardinals went 2-1.
The Arizona offense has been rolling, and they’ve scored a whopping 118 points in their last five games. But while their offense is impressive, their defense makes them a dangerous team. Arizona has the fourth-best pass defense (205.1 yards per game), they’re sixth in sacks (32), ninth in interceptions (12), and fourth in points allowed per game (14.7).
I think this potent offensive attack, supported by a top-tier defense, will be too much for the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams defense has all the big names; Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald, and now Von Miller, but they’ve still struggled with stopping teams from scoring.
In their three games before playing the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13, they allowed an average of 31.66 points per game and lost each of those contests.
I’m taking Arizona to cover in this one. I think their defense will keep the Rams in check and allow Kyler Murray time to build up a big lead.
Falcons at Panthers (-3)
This is a great bounce-back spot for the Carolina Panthers after getting shut down by the Miami Dolphins in their last game. This week, the Panthers play an Atlanta Falcons team that allows the second-most points per game in the NFL, whereas Miami ranks eleventh in that category.
Since Calvin Ridley announced he was stepping away from football, the Falcons offense has sputtered, and they are only 2-4. In those six games, the Falcons have only averaged 13.5 points.
Carolina only allows 21.1 points per game, and this week they’re taking on an Atlanta team that’s scored 41 points in their last four games. The Falcons also rank 31st in points allowed per game (27.7).
Atlanta also has issues with getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They rank last in total sacks (15) and in pressures per dropback (16.7%). Even though Cam Newton was benched last week, I believe that the veteran QB will rebound against Atlanta’s weaker defense. I think that this will be a low-scoring game, with the Panthers pulling out a victory.
NFL Betting: Week 14 Home Favorites
What do you think of these three home favorites? Do you think they’ll cover the NFL betting spread in Week 14?
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