NFL Draft Betting: Strategy on Total First-Round Defensive Players

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Greg Newsome NFL Draft Betting
 (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Sep 07, 2022, 12:07 PM

The San Diego Chargers selected Northwestern defensive tackle Luis Castillo with the 28th pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. Two other Wildcats were picked in that year’s draft, though neither – offensive tackle Trai Essex and running back Noah Herron – went in the first round, marking the 70th straight draft (of 70 all-time drafts) in which Northwestern didn’t have multiple first-round picks.

Sixteen years later, Northwestern’s drought has swelled to 85 years; they haven’t had one player selected within the first three rounds since Castillo, let alone multiple players in the first round of the same draft. With a potential top-10 pick in offensive tackle Rashawn Slater, their single-pick first-round drought will end at 16 years, the second-longest in program history, and with a potential first-rounder in cornerback Greg Newsome II, their multi-pick first-round drought could end at 85 years.

And if Newsome is selected in the first round, it could be a notable pick for bettors holding tickets for total defensive players (or offensive players) drafted in the first round. As of Friday, April 23, the over/under total in NFL Draft Specials for defensive players drafted in the first round:

  • Over 13.5 (-115)
  • Under 13.5 (-105)

Likewise, the total for offensive players drafted in the first round:

  • Over 18.5 (-105)
  • Under 18.5 (-115)

In BetMGM’s NFL Mock Draft based exclusively on draft odds, Patrick Surtain II was the first defensive player drafted (No. 10 to the Dallas Cowboys), which aligned with most predictive projections. If that happens, 14 of the final 23 picks, including Surtain, must be defenders in order to hit the over first-round defensive players.

On Thursday’s episode of High Motor by BetMGM, Chase Kiddy and I discussed the strategy for that NFL Draft bet and the lack of elite defensive prospects in this year’s draft class.

Listen below (or on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and everywhere else):

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

Read More @DoughtyBetMGM

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.