NFL Draft Odds: Public Loves Justin Fields, Patrick Surtain

min read
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Apr 16, 2021, 6:55 PM
NFL Draft Odds Justin Fields 49ers
(Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

We didn’t know whom the San Francisco 49ers were targeting when they acquired the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. In trading three first-round picks (2021, 2022, and 2023) and a third-round pick (2021) to the Miami Dolphins last month, we knew they were targeting a quarterback; they didn’t deal two future first-round picks to draft Ja’Marr Chase, Penei Sewell, or Kyle Pitts. But we didn’t know if they were targeting Mac Jones, Justin Fields, or Trey Lance

In the three weeks since that trade, NFL Draft odds have reflected the uncertainty surrounding the 49ers’ selection, though there was a consistent favorite: Mac Jones. For weeks, the former Alabama quarterback sat atop NFL Draft Specials for the No. 3 pick. 

The odds as of Wednesday, April 14:

  • Mac Jones +250
  • Justin Fields +200
  • Trey Lance +450

The odds as of Thursday, April 15:

  • Justin Fields -140
  • Mac Jones +110
  • Trey Lance +450

Twenty-one other players are listed, though none are higher than +2500 (Zach Wilson) and only four other players are higher than +10000 – Wilson, Pitts, Chase, and Sewell. It’s the only player prop bet with three players listed higher than +500.

Fields’ rise comes after his pro day in front of 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch this week. The former Ohio State quarterback opened at +200, and as of Friday morning, he’s earning nearly 55 percent of the tickets:

Player Tickets Handle
Justin Fields 54.8% 42.9%
Mac Jones 20.5% 53.1%
Trey Lance 11% 2.8%
Kyle Pitts 7.2% 0.5%
Zach Wilson 4.5% 0.5%

“BetMGM is offering more than 80 prop bets for the NFL Draft,” said Darren Darby, sports trader for BetMGM. “We have already seen strong interest from bettors and have adjusted the line on 3rd Overall Pick and 1st Defensive Player props based on sharp action.”

Since Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Trent Richardson were the top three picks in the 2012 NFL Draft, only once has a defender failed to crack the top three (2018). A defender won’t crack the top three in 2021. In fact, a defender might not crack the top 10 if teams pass on Patrick Surtain II, Micah Parson, Jaycee Horn, and others in favor of quarterbacks, receivers, and offensive tackles.

Surtain opened at +180 in NFL Draft Specials to be the first defensive player drafted, behind only Parsons (-130). The former Alabama cornerback now sits atop draft odds (-120) and has been popular pick among bettors:

Player Tickets Handle
Patrick Surtain II 47.7% 68.6%
Jaycee Horn 24.6% 26.8%
Micah Parsons 10.8% 0.8%
Kwity Paye 9.2% 2.9%

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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of High Motor by BetMGM, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else. He has written for Sports Illustrated, HERO Sports, Bleacher Report, and SB Nation. Follow him on Twitter: @DoughtyBetMGM 

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Andrew Doughty

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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.