If you take a look at the Week 11 NFL football odds on BetMGM, you’ll see that every division leader is a favorite except for the Dallas Cowboys. Most of the other division leaders have easy matchups. However, the Cardinals should be on upset watch if they can’t get Kyler Murray back in time for their critical divisional matchup against Seattle.
In this article, I’ll be taking a closer look at the NFL odds for three games in which division leaders are favored and have a good chance to cover the spread and keep their place atop the division.
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7)
The Bills have won convincingly against teams with losing records this season. However, the Indianapolis Colts come into the game at 5-5 and boast the sixth-best rushing offense in the NFL. Fortunately for Buffalo fans, the Bills have been stout against the run this year. Buffalo allows just 83.9 rushing yards per game, the third-best mark in the NFL.
The Bills are stingy against the pass, too, giving up just 190.2 yards per game through the air. At the same time, Indianapolis ranks near the bottom half of the NFL in passing offense.
I think the Colts will have a hard time staying in this game if Buffalo jumps out to an early lead. This year, Jonathan Taylor has been fantastic, but the Colts will have a hard time using him if Buffalo goes up big early.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-10.5)
The Titans haven’t stopped winning since Derrick Henry went down, but they have failed to cover the spread in two straight games. However, that could change on Sunday when they take on a Texans team that has the second-worst run defense in the NFL.
Tennessee hasn’t had a consistent running game going since Henry went down, but they should be able to dictate the game on the ground against Houston.
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The Packers travel to Minneapolis this weekend to take on a Vikings team that needs to start winning games. The Minnesota crowd will be loud in this one, and Green Bay will have to run its offense in a noisy environment without Aaron Jones.
Last week, the star running back went down with a sprained MCL and will be out at least one week. Luckily, the Packers have a capable backup in AJ Dillon. Minnesota has the fifth-worst run defense in the NFL, ranking just ahead of the Lions and Jets.
The spread in this game may be affected by Aaron Jones’ injury, but it shouldn’t be. AJ Dillon averages 4.3 yards per attempt on the ground and an astonishing 12.25 yards per reception through the air. So he’s plenty capable of carrying the load for Green Bay.
Analyzing the NFL Football Odds for Week 11 Favorites
While the Cowboys and Cardinals may struggle in their games, the other division leaders should roll. I like the Bills, Titans, and Packers to cover against the spread in Week 11.
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