If you’re looking for some excellent value this week, there are plenty of home favorites to choose from. BetMGM has the latest NFL betting lines for all of these games.
Some home favorites stand out as appealing picks in those NFL football odds. Which teams are they? Here are three home favorites that I like this week.
Cleveland at Green Bay (-7)
Here are the details for this game:
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 25th
- Time: 4:30 P.M. EST on FOX and NFL Network
- Venue: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI
In the 2021 season, the Green Bay Packers have been one of the most reliable teams in the NFL to bet on. They are 11-3 ATS, which is the best record against the spread in the league. On top of this, they also have the best ATS record as a home favorite at 5-0.
Part of the reason for Green Bay’s consistent success is that the Packers do a great job taking care of the football and creating opportunities. They rank third in turnover margin in the NFL at +12.
One significant challenge for the Packers in this game will be shutting down the Browns’ rushing attack. The Cleveland Browns are fifth in the NFL in rushing yards per game (139.6).
The Packers have a decent rushing defense, ranking 12th in that category, giving up just 107.9 rushing yards per game.
If Green Bay can shut down Cleveland’s ground game, I don’t see the Browns’ 26th-ranked passing offense being effective. Green Bay allows the ninth-fewest passing yards per game (217.9).
Green Bay has also averaged 37.3 points in their previous three games, while Cleveland has averaged 16. I don’t think the Browns’ offense can keep pace with the Packers in this game.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-7.5)
Here are the details for this game:
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 26th
- Time: 4:25 P.M. EST on CBS
- Venue: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
The Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL lately, winning their last seven games. I think that will continue here as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Chiefs rank eighth in the NFL in points allowed per game (21.1), while the Steelers are 22nd in this category (23.9). Kansas City has only allowed 13.2 points per game during their seven-game win streak.
On offense, the gap between teams is even more prominent. The Chiefs rank third in the NFL in total yards per game (397.2), while the Steelers rank 21st (317.5).
As for points per game, the story is similar. The Chiefs score 27.5 points per game (sixth in the NFL), while the Steelers only score 20.8 points per game (20th).
One important thing to consider about this game is that the Steelers have done well in the second half, helping them cover or win outright in several games. They are ninth in the NFL in second-half points, and over their past three games, they average more points in the second half than any other team (20.3).
I don’t believe this will happen against the Chiefs. Kansas City is fourth in the NFL in second-half points allowed (9).
I believe the Chiefs will cover the spread in this game because of their smothering second-half defense.
Miami at New Orleans (-3)
Here are the details for this game:
Date: Monday, Dec. 27th
Time: 8:15 P.M. EST on ESPN
Venue: The Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA
The Miami Dolphins have been on a roll lately, winning their last six games. However, I do not think they match up well against the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints’ defense ranks sixth in the NFL in points allowed per game (20.4), and they just shut out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Dolphins are not even in the top 20 for scoring offense, averaging just 20.4 points per game. Even during their six-game winning streak, the Dolphins are only averaging 23.8 points per game, which would still put them in the bottom half of the league.
New Orleans also takes better care of the football with a +3 turnover margin, compared to -2 for Miami.
I think the Saints cover in this game because of their defense and ability to protect the football.
See More NFL Football Odds
These are my picks in Week 16 based on this week’s NFL football odds. Do you agree with me?
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