Sometimes, there is more value in NFL money lines than spreads.
In Week 12 of the NFL, that’s the case for a handful of teams.
There are some exciting favorites and even a couple of intriguing underdogs in this week’s NFL lines that jumped out to me as intriguing money line bets.
Below are a few of my favorite teams to win outright in Week 12.
Buccaneers (-155) at Colts (+130)
The Colts are on a roll right now, in large part because of Jonathan Taylor.
Last week against a very stout Bills defense, Taylor had five touchdowns and 204 total yards.
That wasn’t just a fluke game, either. He’s been consistently unstoppable, with eight straight games with 100 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown.
The last running back to match those numbers was LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, the year he won MVP.
The Buccaneers haven’t been doing well on the road this season, going 2-3 while playing outside of Tampa. On top of that, they now have to compete on a short week, having just played on Monday night.
I think the Colts have a great chance at upsetting the Super Bowl champs in this spot behind the efforts of their MVP-candidate running back.
Eagles (-175) at Giants (+150)
These are two teams heading in very different directions.
The Eagles are starting to string some wins together. They’ve won their last two games, are eight in the NFL at points per game (27.0), and have only allowed 18.75 points per game in their previous four matchups.
Philly’s offense has been what’s stood out recently. The Eagles are tied for fifth in red zone efficiency, and they’re second in rushing yards per game. In addition, their early-season struggles of moving the ball seem to have disappeared, as made evident by their 46.10% 3rd down conversion rank, 4th best in the NFL.
On the other hand, the Giants are now 3-7 after dropping their last game Monday night and the season looks all but over for them.
The Giants also have a margin of victory of -10.0 in games where they have the rest disadvantage, which they will have in this one.
I like the Eagles to win this one easily.
Jets (+120) at Texans (-145)
I thought the Jets could turn their season around after their win against the Bengals, but they’ve now lost three straight games.
With inconsistent play at quarterback and Robert Saleh opting for a complete rebuild rather than a short-term fix, I don’t expect this team to be competing anytime soon.
The Texans pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the year versus the Titans last week, and they’re also fourth in the NFL with 13 interceptions. Meanwhile, the Jets have been turnover machines this year, throwing an NFL-leading 18 interceptions.
I think the Texans can get a couple of turnovers against the Jets and win their second game in a row.
Vikings (+130) at 49ers (-155)
Kirk Cousins currently ranks 2nd overall in PFF passing grade, and I expect him to outclass Jimmy Garrapolo on Sunday.
His passing ability, coupled with a rushing attack led by Dalvin Cook, should be able to knock off the 49ers, who are only a disappointing 1-4 at home. In addition, the 49ers’ defense ranks 15th in the red zone, whereas the Vikings are one of the best red zone offenses in the NFL.
I’ll be backing the Vikings confidently here as I think the 49ers’ troubles at home continue this week.
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