Four teams remain in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. While we have the NFL betting odds right here at BetMGM, there are arguments all the way around on who is the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Is it the defending champs, Kansas City? Is it the team with the likely MVP at quarterback, Green Bay? Is it the red-hot Buffalo Bills? Or a Tampa Bay team playing better every week?
Of course, each of those fan bases will make a case for their team. Here, we’re going to power rank the remaining four teams from least likely to most likely to win the Super Bowl.
NOTE: This ranking is not based on BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds but is the author’s opinion.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Really, none of these teams deserve this No. 4 spot. Would anyone be surprised if any of the four remaining teams win the Super Bowl?
Tampa Bay defeated Green Bay 38-10 when they met on Oct. 18. That was at home. Now the Bucs have to go to Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 8-1 this season.
Tampa Bay is playing like the team we expected them to be when it made big offseason moves like bringing in Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. After some shaky offensive performances, the unit is looking like a typical well-oiled, Brady-led machine. The defense has been strong all year, led by rising superstar Devin White.
The AFC Championship game seems like more of a 50/50 game, which is why Tampa Bay is slotted No. 4 here.
3. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are terrific on offense. We know that. The defense has had some tough games this season, but its performance against Baltimore last week — only allowing three points — was impressive. The Ravens averaged 34.4 points in their previous six games.
Buffalo seems like America’s team right now for those that don’t have a rooting interest for the other three. It’s a big and unfamiliar stage. Even with a reduced crowd, how do the Bills and their young quarterback handle big moments on Sunday?
It’ll be a prime opportunity for Buffalo if Patrick Mahomes can’t play. But it seems he’s progressing well. A lot of casual fans may want the Bills to win, but how many actually expect Buffalo to defeat a Kansas City team with Mahomes making his return to the field?
2. Kansas City Chiefs
As of this writing, Mahomes is still questionable for Sunday. While symptom-free, he remains in concussion protocol on top of a toe injury.
Buffalo vs. Kansas City was already going to be a tremendous matchup with Mahomes at full strength. Without Mahomes, or him possibly hobbled, that evens the matchup evens up more.
Chad Henne proved to be a capable backup last week. And we know Andy Reid will be aggressive no matter who is behind center. The Chiefs are used to the big stage. This is new territory for the Bills. While sometimes the “big stage, big moments” argument is overused, there is something to be said about having the experience of winning a Super Bowl and what it takes to do so.
1. Green Bay Packers
The Packers rise to No. 1 due to the uncertainty surrounding Mahomes. Even with a healthy Mahomes, Green Bay has a fair argument to be the Super Bowl favorite.
In fact, the Packers are slight favorites over Kansas City to win the Super Bowl on the BetMGM sportsbook.
Green Bay has scored 40, 35, and 32 points in its last three games. The defense has allowed 14, 16, and 18 points in those contests. Those wins came against Tennessee (a playoff team), Chicago (another playoff team), and the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round.
If there was ever a knock on Aaron Rodgers, it obviously wasn’t about his talent but his lone Super Bowl ring. This is Rodgers’ best shot in years at adding another championship to his legacy.
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Sam Herder is a writer for BetMGM and HERO Sports. A North Dakota State journalism grad, he spent several years in the print media industry before writing for online outlets. Sam has covered sports at all levels — high school, college, and professional — since 2011.