When betting pro football underdog lines, it’s crucial to find value in the money line. Therefore, I’ll often wager on the money line for better payouts when I feel strongly about an underdog.
In Week 12, there are three underdogs I believe will win straight-up. So what are the current NFL lines for these underdog bets? Let’s take a look.
Denver Broncos (+125) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Denver Broncos are coming off a bye while the Los Angeles Chargers spent Week 11 fighting a scrappy Pittsburgh Steelers team. In that game, the Chargers gained 533 yards, outgaining the Steelers by 233.
Yet, the Chargers only won by four. What happened? The Chargers were penalized 12 times for 75 yards and allowed 27 points in the fourth quarter.
In Denver, I doubt the Chargers will be able to storm to an early lead. The Denver defense, even without Von Miller, is an elite group. They rank third in points allowed per game (18.3) and ninth in passing yards (218.1).
The Denver offense, led by Teddy Bridgewater, lacks firepower. They score an average of 20 points per game. That said, the Steelers topped 20 points in only four games before they scored 37 against Los Angeles.
I believe that the well-rested Broncos can keep the score close. By exploiting the Chargers’ 32nd rank running defense, they can wear Los Angeles down and win a close game on the road.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings (+130)
This season, the San Francisco 49ers have a 1-4 record at home. They are, however, riding a two-game winning streak where they’ve scored a total of 61 points.
The Vikings have an identical overall record (5-5) and are also riding a two-game winning streak where they’ve scored a total of 61 points. Last week, they defeated their division rival, the Green Bay Packers, 34-31.
As an NFL underdog in Week 12, I believe that Minnesota has an advantage at quarterback. Kirk Cousins’ inspired play the last two weeks shows in his stats. He’s thrown for 635 yards and five touchdowns.
San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s thrown for a respectable 358 yards and four touchdowns in that same time frame.
For the 49ers, WR Deebo Samuel is carrying the load in the passing game, and he’s also proven to be an effective runner. Against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Samuel rushed for 79 yards, averaging 9.9 yards per rush.
The 49ers aren’t great on their home field, and the Minnesota Vikings offense is hot. I believe Kirk Cousins leads the Vikings to their third win in a row.
Washington Football Team vs. Seattle Seahawks (-105)
I believe the Seattle Seahawks and QB Russell Wilson are nearing an ugly divorce. Wilson didn’t exactly hide his displeasure with the organization during the previous offseason.
The team is also in the midst of a miserable season. With or without Wilson in the line-up, Seattle can’t win games. They rank 25th in points scored (19.4), and their defense gives up 401.8 yards per game.
Washington hasn’t fared much better, posting a 4-6 record. They are, however, riding a two-game winning streak where they upset the Tampa Bay Bucs.
QB Taylor Heinicke lit up Tampa and Carolina, passing for 456 yards and four touchdowns. However, the reason why I think Seattle can win this game is Washington’s defense.
This Washington defense has allowed passing offenses over eight yards per passing attempt four times this season. Seattle averages 7.9 yards per pass attempt this season.
I don’t believe Wilson wants to end his time in Seattle with a whimper. I expect him to take and complete shots downfield on this Washington defense and win the game.
Week 12 Pro Football Underdog Lines
These pro football underdog lines are all spreads of three points or less. In close spread situations, I believe the money line is a better value, and through my analysis, I think these teams will hit.
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