The Atlanta Falcons capitalized on a Trevor Siemian fumble with a Matt Ryan-to-Olamide Zaccheaus touchdown to extend their lead to 18 points, 24-6, over the New Orleans Saints with 10 minutes remaining in their Week 9 game. In doing so, the Falcons were all but guaranteed to cover +6.5, a spread backed by a majority of the public tickets at BetMGM.
Those tickets cashed when the Falcons won outright, 27-25, to continue an NFL betting trend with a 90-percent cover rate since 2018 and a 74-percent cover rate since 2014.
It was the third game this season in which a majority of public tickets were on an underdog of at least six points but fewer than nine points, i.e., +6 to +8.5. The dog covered in each of those three games:
- Week 2: Titans (+6.5) at Seahawks
- Week 7: Bengals (+6.5) at Ravens
- Week 9: Falcons (+6.5) at Saints
It was the 50th such regular-season game since 2014. And over that time, the public dog is 36-13-1.
The Chicago Bears’ failure to cover +6.5 in a 14-point home loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 7 of the 2020 season is the lone ATS loss since October 2019 and one of just two losses since September 2018. Since the Houston Texans didn’t cover +6 against the New England Patriots in Week 3 three years ago, public dogs between +6 and +8.5 are a staggering 21-2-1.