Three minutes into the fourth quarter of his NFL debut, Najee Harris had just 25 rushing yards on 15 carries as the Pittsburgh Steelers, a 6.5-point underdog, trailed the Buffalo Bills, 10-6. Harris’ 16th carry went for 18 yards and set up the Steelers’ only offensive touchdown of the game, a 5-yard reception by Diontae Johnson, in the eventual 23-16 win.
It was one of five outright wins (5-4) for road underdogs in Week 1 NFL betting and one of 47 outright wins through the first 13 weeks of the season as road dogs deliver huge returns.
The Steelers are one of 14 teams with multiple road wins as an underdog, a group led by the Arizona Cardinals, who improved to 5-0 with their Week 11 win in Seattle. All five of the Cardinals’ wins have come as an underdog of fewer than seven points, which has been a dominant sweet spot for road dogs this season.
Entering Week 14, road dogs between +1 and +7 are 45-33-1 outright (.576) for a staggering return of 55.9 percent. If you placed a $100 money line on each of the 79 road underdogs between +1 and +7, you’d have $12,314 (including stake). And the returns would’ve been consistent; there have been at least two road dogs each week and zero weeks in the red.
Overall, road dogs are delivering the biggest returns (+19.4 percent) since a 2006 season loaded with huge money line upsets that finished at +34.5 percent. And within the window of +1 to +7, the returns of 55.9 percent are the highest on record.*
There are 11 road underdogs in Week 14 NFL betting, including six teams between +1 and +7. You can view those games and all other NFL odds at the BetMGM sportsbook.
*Data available from 2003-21.
