The Kansas City Chiefs will repeat as Super Bowl champions with a, at minimum, four-point win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, predict a heavy majority of bettors.
Minutes after winning their second straight AFC Championship, the Chiefs opened as a 3.5-point point favorite in BetMGM Super Bowl odds. Bettors loved the number and are overwhelmingly picking the Chiefs to cover. As of Tuesday morning, 76 percent of all spread tickets have been placed on the Chiefs, which account for a staggering 80 percent of the handle. Despite the heavy early action, the line hasn’t moved, remaining at 3.5 points as the Bucs garnered just 24 percent of tickets and 20 percent of the handle.
“If early betting is any indication, the public and some of our larger betting customers love the Chiefs. From the early looks of it, the book will likely need the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl,” said Jason Scott, VP of Trading for BetMGM, on Tuesday.
The Chiefs were horrendous against the spread this season, covering in just six of 17 games entering the AFC Championship. Before covering three points against the Buffalo Bills, they were just 3-5 ATS at home and 1-9 ATS in their last nine games. The Bucs, meanwhile, opened the season as a horrible spread team but have since rebounded with two straight underdog covers, including last week in Green Bay.
The largest Super Bowl wager thus far is a $180,000 wager on the Chiefs money line (-180) but the second- and third-largest wagers are both on the Chiefs to cover: $115,000 (-115) and $110,000 (-110). The Chiefs’ money line has steadily climbed all season after opening at +650 in the preseason. Twelve percent of all Super Bowl futures tickets (and 34 percent of the handle) while only nine percent of tickets (and 11 percent of the handle) are on the Bucs (+145 after opening at +1600).
The public also loves the over, which currently sits at 57.5 after opening at 56.5. Seventy-nine percent of tickets are on the over, which accounts for 82 percent of the handle. Both teams have hovered around .500 against the total all season and both helped cash over tickets in their respective games last week.
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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of High Motor by BetMGM, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else. He has written for Sports Illustrated, HERO Sports, Bleacher Report, and SB Nation. Follow him on Twitter: @DoughtyBetMGM.