On Thursday Night Football in Week 11, the New England Patriots (6-4) will face the Atlanta Falcons (4-5). Both teams need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Current NFL betting lines place the Patriots as the road favorite. So let’s take a look at some of the best bets for this prime-time matchup.
Week 11: New England Patriots Are Surging
One of the biggest stories in the NFL right now comes from the surging Patriots. They’ve won their last four games by an average of 25 points.
Last week at home against the Cleveland Browns, Mac Jones threw three touchdown passes. Even backup Brian Hoyer tossed a touchdown pass during a short stint in the fourth quarter.
Rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson carried the ball 20 times versus the Browns, piling up 100 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
The Pats come to Atlanta this week with a 4-0 road record. They are 3-1 ATS as the away team.
Atlanta is 0-3 ATS at home this season. Their defense allows a little more than 29 points per game, including 43 to the Dallas Cowboys last week.
As far as point spreads go, the Pats (-6.5) might be a great bet on Thursday Night Football in Week 11.
Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football
The Atlanta Falcons are in somewhat of a nosedive in the NFL playoff picture. Granted, they’ve had a few small peaks this season.
Two weeks ago, they pulled off a stunner at home against the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints scored 22 points in the fourth quarter to take a one-point lead with less than two minutes remaining. But Matt Ryan was able to throw a 64-yard bomb on the first play of the drive after the Saints had failed to convert a two-point conversion to go up by three points.
That set the Falcons up for a game-winning field goal with a final score of 27-25.
After close games like that for most of the year, the Falcons suffered a humiliating 43-3 defeat last week against the Cowboys.
Still, the Falcons are 3-1 ATS after a loss. But they are going to be playing one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
It should be another challenging game for the Falcons.
Patriots vs. Falcons
The Patriots are averaging 27.5 points per game. The Falcons have averaged about eight points less than that. So, on paper, it seems like the over-under at 46.5 should be about right.
Both teams have hit the over in five games this season. Atlanta hit the over in two non-conference games. (New England did it once out of four non-conference matchups.)
To hit the over, either team will only need a better-than-average performance. I like the Patriots to outshine the Falcons on Thursday night this week.
Can the Falcons keep up?
The Pats have allowed just under 18 points per game. Matt Ryan will need to step it up against one of the top defenses in the league.
I see the Pats stomping the Falcons, 31-17. I’d take the over at 46.5 (-110).
Early Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football in Week 11 offers some early prop bets that might be worth considering. For the Pats to score over 26.5, the odds for that are -120.
To go one step further, the over at 27.5 for the Pats offers +105 odds. So if you want to take a gamble on Bill Belichik running up the score, that’d be a great place to start.
The best odds for the game come from the winning margin category. The Pats to win by 1-6 offers +310 odds while a margin of 7-12 offers +350. Pats by 13-18 show odds at +475. Whereas the Falcons, by a winning margin of 1-6, offers +425.
These are precise prop bets, but even a small wager is worth the payout.
Which team do you like to open Week 11 with a victory? Get your picks in today via the best online sportsbook. Create your account with BetMGM today.