In Week 16, the Indianapolis Colts (7-6) and the Buffalo Bills (8-6) opened as underdogs. Current NFL betting lines for these teams remain the same.
So, let’s take a look at the prospects of either team’s NFL underdog odds to find the best value.
Colts (+100)
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 25th
- Time: 8:15 PM EST on NFL Network
- Venue: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ
- Participants: Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals
The Colts should be at the top of your list among this week’s NFL underdogs. They are one game behind the Tennessee Titans in the AFC South. Indy currently holds the fifth seed in the playoff picture for the conference.
One of the keys to their success this season is Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are undefeated when Taylor has more than 100 rushing yards.
This week, they’ll be on the road to face the Arizona Cardinals (10-4). The Cardinals opened their season with seven straight victories. Since then, they’ve gone 3-4, including a brutal road loss last week against the Detroit Lions.
The Cardinals have given up an average of 109 rushing yards in their last three contests. In six home games this season, they’ve allowed 129.5 rushing yards on average.
I believe that Arizona’s run defense makes them vulnerable this week. Indianapolis ranks 2nd in the NFL for rushing yards per game with 157. They’ve averaged 190.3 rushing yards per matchup in their previous three meetings.
The Colts rank eighth in the league at passing defense in their last three games, holding their opponent to an average of 186 yards, while the Cardinals have averaged 252.3 passing yards per their previous three matchups.
Both teams have top-tier offenses. However, Indianapolis has done two times better than Arizona at red zone scoring in their last three matchups.
I’d take the Colts at +100 with Taylor coming off a 170-yard performance against the New England Patriots. He’s a strong candidate for this year’s MVP award.
When he runs for more than 100 yards, the Colts win. I expect him to do that this week.
Bills vs. Patriots – Under 43.5 (-110)
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 26th
- Time: 1:00 PM EST on CBS
- Venue: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA
- Participants: Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots
The Patriots and Bills met under harsh weather conditions in Week 13. Mac Jones only attempted three passes for the Pats in a 14-10 victory.
Josh Allen threw for 145 yards and one touchdown in that loss. He was also the team’s top rusher with 39 yards on six carries.
The Bills lost 33-27 on the road to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the following week after forcing overtime. Once again, Allen was Buffalo’s leading rusher with 109 yards and a touchdown.
Last week at home against the Carolina Panthers, Allen threw for 210 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Devin Singletary had 22 carries for 86 yards and one score.
The Bills beat the Panthers, 31-14.
The Patriots had their seven-game winning streak ended last week against the Colts. New England’s run defense ranks 24th while Buffalo ranks 16th at rushing yards allowed per game. The Bills’ passing defense is first in the NFL, while the Patriots rank third. Both of these teams have excellent secondaries that can stop the other’s passing game, so I expect both teams to try to run the ball and control the clock.
I expect another low-scoring game between these teams this week. Both teams combined have gone under 15 out of 28 times. In the AFC East, they’ve gone under six out of eight times.
The point spread and money line for Buffalo is a bit risky. I’d stick with the safest bet, and I believe that’s the under at 43.5 (-110).
NFL Underdog Odds in Week 16
When it comes to NFL underdog odds, I believe the Indianapolis Colts are the top pick in Week 16.
What do you think? Which team is your top underdog in Week 16?
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