The New England Patriots are on a roll, having won seven consecutive games to take the top seed in the AFC.
Despite this accolade and having the second-best Super Bowl odds in the conference, NFL betting lines have New England listed as underdogs when they travel to face the Indianapolis Colts this Saturday.
Are the Patriots the best bet when looking at NFL underdog odds in Week 15? Let’s take a look at their chances.
A Case For the Patriots
The money line currently sits at +120 for the Patriots, who have the longest active winning streak in the league entering Week 15.
New England has the top-scoring defense in the NFL and averages the 10th most points per game. In addition, they’re coming off their bye week, which gives Bill Belichick an extra week to come up with a game plan for this matchup.
The Patriots are ninth for rushing yards per game and may be able to take advantage of the Colts defense, which gives up 4.5 yards per rush, tied for seventh-worst in the league.
If the Patriots’ defense can get the Colts into third-and-long situations, they should thrive as well. New England allows the second-fewest yards per pass attempt, third-fewest yards per game, and is tied for 10th in sacks per game.
The Colts are 19th in yards per passing attempt and 21st in passing yards per game, although the offensive line is one of the best at keeping their quarterback, Carson Wentz, upright.
A Case For the Colts
The Colts have also been playing well lately, having won four of their last five with a net point differential of +71. In addition, Indy will be coming off of their bye week, so they’ll have the extra time to prepare as well.
Indy is second in rush yards per game and gets the most yards per rush at 5.1 yards. Meanwhile, the Patriots allow 114.5 yards per game on the ground and 4.4 yards per rush, both 19th in the NFL.
If Jonathan Taylor can run free, then the Colts offense, which is third in points per game at 28.5, will be able to effectively run play action and throw the ball too. Jumping ahead will force the Pats, who are 28th in pass attempts per game, to play from behind and throw more than they’d like.
While New England’s passing game is efficient, averaging the sixth-most yards per attempt, it’s evident by volume that passing isn’t what they want to be the focal point of their offense.
How This Game Compares to Other NFL Underdog Odds for Week 15
I believe that of all the underdogs in Week 15, the Patriots are the best team. I would also say that there are better money lines out there for NFL underdog odds. Both of these teams are playing excellent football, and I don’t believe the current odds provide enough value for a game that I think could go either way.
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