In this installment of our NFL update, let’s look at key NFL betting trends through the first quarter of the season, summarize NFL Week 4 action, and preview NFL Week 5 games before closing with our betting picks.
NFL Week 4 summary
In the NFL Week 4 action, there were certainly a few surprises. Let’s look at how each game compares to the closing NFL betting lines and totals to better inform your online sports betting in the coming weeks.
Denver Broncos 37, New York Jets 28
Closing line Jets -1; closing total 41
Broncos +10 ATS; OVER +24
Carolina Panthers 31, Arizona Cardinals 21
Closing line Cardinals -3; closing total 52
Panthers +14 ATS; PUSH
Baltimore Ravens 31, Washington Football Team 17
Closing line Ravens -14; closing total 45
Tie ATS; OVER +3
Cleveland Browns 49, Dallas Cowboys 38
Closing line Cowboys -3.5; closing total 56.5
Browns +14.5 ATS; OVER +30.5
Cincinnati Bengals 33, Jacksonville Jaguars 25
Closing line Bengals -1; closing total 49.5
Bengals +7 ATS; OVER +8.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Los Angeles Chargers 31
Closing line Buccaneers -7.5; closing total 42.5
Chargers +0.5 ATS; OVER +26.5
Minnesota Vikings 31, Houston Texans 23
Closing line Texans -3.5; closing total 53
Vikings +11.5 ATS; OVER +1
New Orleans Saints 35, Detroit Lions 29
Closing line Saints -3; closing total 51.5
Saints +3 ATS; OVER +12.5
Seattle Seahawks 31, Miami Dolphins 23
Closing line Seahawks -4.5; closing total 55
Seahawks +3.5 ATS; UNDER -1
Los Angeles Rams 17, New York Giants 9
Closing line Rams -13.5; closing total 50
Giants +5.5 ATS; UNDER -24
Buffalo Bills 30, Las Vegas Raiders 23
Closing line Bills -3; closing total 52.5
Bills +4 ATS; OVER +0.5
Indianapolis Colts 19, Chicago Bears 11
Closing line Colts -3.5; closing total 43
Colts +4.5 ATS; UNDER -13
Philadelphia Eagles 25, San Francisco 49ers 20
Closing line 49ers -8.5; closing total 46
Eagles +13.5 ATS; UNDER -1
Kansas City Chiefs 26, New England Patriots 10
Closing line Chiefs -11.5; closing total 48.5
Chiefs +4.5 ATS; UNDER -12.5
Green Bay Packers 30, Atlanta Falcons 16
Closing line Packers -5; closing total 56.5
Packers +9 ATS; UNDER -10.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers game at the Tennessee Titans, originally scheduled for NFL Week 4, was postponed to Week 7 after the Titans’ COVID-19 outbreak. For more information on the latest sports schedules and postponements due to the pandemic, check out our regularly-updated piece about what sports are still on.
Key NFL Week 4 sports betting trends
Key NFL betting trends to keep in mind after NFL Week 4 include the following:
- Favorites went 7-7-1 against the spread this week, and are even on the season as well, meaning NFL betting lines have been good for many a sportsbook casino so far this season.
- On the season, the Packers and Seahawks are 4-0 against the spread; four teams (Cowboys, Jets, Texans, and Titans) are winless against the spread.
- More games went over their closing total yet again this week, 8-6 (with 1 push).
- Overs have hit all season courtesy of the increased offense (the most points scored through 4 weeks in NFL history) and are 37-26 on the season.
Several teams have also been especially notable so far this season for NFL betting:
- The Titans are 3-0 but have yet to cover NFL betting lines.
- The Jets have failed to cover by an average of 10.2 points per game, worst in the NFL.
- The Texans are 0-4 with a miserable defense; all 4 games have gone over. (The Bills, Raiders, and Saints have also seen all 4 games go over their closing totals.)
- The Giants have the league’s worst offense and it shows: they’ve gone under closing lines by an average of 9.4 points – the worst in the NFL.
- The Packers are covered by an average of 10.9 points – the best in the NFL.
- The Saints’ offense is humming – they’re going over by an NFL best 11.6 points per game.
NFL Week 5 preview
Two teams have their bye week in NFL Week 5: The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. Let’s preview the fifteen games scheduled this week, as well as NFL betting lines and key information required to make smart sports betting picks.
NFL betting picks
These are our picks for NFL Week 5 action, as well as key insights to inform your NFL betting odds:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1, 1-1 away) at Chicago Bears (3-1, 1-1 home)
Current line: Buccaneers -3.5, over/under 44.5
The Buccaneers are 2-2 against the spread, having fallen just short of the cover twice. While the Bears opened 3-0, that was against an incredibly weak schedule (Lions, Giants, Falcons – teams who are currently a combined 1-11).
Our pick: Buccaneers 31, Bears 13
Buffalo Bills (4-0, 2-0 away) at Tennessee Titans (3-0, 1-0 home)
Most sportsbook casino options are not accepting online sports betting on the Bills-Titans game as a result of the uncertainty as to whether or not the Titans will be clear of their COVID-19 outbreak in time to play this week.
Los Angeles Rams (3-1, 1-1 away) at Washington Football Team (1-3, 1-1 home)
Current line: Rams -7.5, over/under 45
Since their season-opening win, Washington has struggled – and now that Dwayne Haskins is being benched for backup signal-caller Kyle Allen, it’s even harder to know what to expect from coach Ron Riveria’s struggling offense. Expect the Rams to get out to a fast start as they continue to beat up on the NFC East (they’ve already beat the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants by an average of almost 10 points per game).
Our pick: Rams 27, Washington 17
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1, 1-1 away) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0, 2-0 home)
Current line: Steelers -7, over/under 44.5
In this cross-state rivalry, anything might happen – but that doesn’t mean it will. The Steelers are angry after their forced bye week, and while the Eagles looked better in NFL Week 4 action against the banged-up 49ers, their own beat-up offensive line figures to have a long day ahead against Pittsburgh’s formidable pass rush.
Our pick: Steelers 26, Eagles 16
Arizona Cardinals (2-2, 1-1 away) at New York Jets (0-4, 0-2 home)
Current line: Cardinals -7, over/under 47.5
Not only are the Jets 0-4 against the spread so far this season, but they’ve also failed to cover by an average of more than 10 points. Their closest loss so far this season was a 9-point loss to the previously winless Broncos. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have lit up suspect secondaries. Expect plenty of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins fireworks against the battered Jets (who are also without injured quarterback Sam Darnold; Joe Flacco will start in his place).
Our pick: Cardinals 34, Jets 16
Las Vegas Raiders (2-2, 1-1 away) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, 2-0 home)
Current line: Chiefs -13.5, over/under 55.5
The Chiefs have been impressive thus far; outside of their comeback win in Week 2 against the Chargers, they’ve won each game by at least 14. They’ve covered in three of four – but have also been under in three of four. The Raiders, meanwhile, have gone over in all four games. Expect the Raiders’ porous defense (which has given up 30 or more in three of four) to lead to easy scores for Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Our pick: Chiefs 34, Raiders 20