NFL Update: Week 10 Review & Week 11 Preview

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BetMGM @BETMGM Jun 16, 2021, 2:20 PM
Nyheim Hinesof Indianapolis Colts against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium November 2020.
Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

In this week’s NFL update, let’s look at key NFL betting trends as we enter the home stretch and playoff races heat up, including summarizing NFL Week 10 action and previewing NFL Week 11 games, as well as our NFL betting picks.

NFL Week 10 summary

NFL Week 10 included a few lucky escapes (we’re looking at you, Cardinals and Packers), a few bad beats for bettors (Nick Chubb hurt a lot of Browns’ fans), and added plenty of intrigue to divisional races. Let’s examine how each game compared to its closing NFL betting lines and totals to better inform your online sports betting in the coming weeks.

Indianapolis Colts 34, Tennessee Titans 17

Closing line Colts -1; closing total 49

Colts +16 ATS; OVER +2

Cleveland Browns 10, Houston Texans 7

Closing line Browns -4.5; closing total 46

Texans +1.5 ATS; UNDER -29

Green Bay Packers 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Closing line Packers -13.5; closing total 47

Jaguars +9.5 ATS; UNDER -3

New York Giants 27, Philadelphia Eagles 17

Closing line Eagles -4.5; closing total 46

Giants +14.5 ATS; UNDER -2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 46, Carolina Panthers 23

Closing line Bucs -6; closing total 49.5

Bucs +17 ATS; OVER +19.5

Detroit Lions 30, Washington Football Team 27

Closing line Lions -2.5; closing total 45.5

Lions +0.5 ATS; OVER +11.5

Arizona Cardinals 32, Buffalo Bills 30

Closing line Cardinals -3; closing total 55.5

Bills +1 ATS; OVER +6.5

Las Vegas Raiders 37, Denver Broncos 12

Closing line Raiders -3; closing total 50.5

Raiders +22 ATS; UNDER -1.5

Miami Dolphins 29, Los Angeles Chargers 21

Closing line Dolphins -6.5; closing total 48.5

Dolphins +1.5 ATS; OVER +1.5

Pittsburgh Steelers 36, Cincinnati Bengals 10

Shawn Williams of Cincinnati Bengals against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field September 2019.
Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Closing line Steelers -6.5; closing total 45.5

Steelers +19.5 ATS; OVER +0.5

New Orleans Saints 27, San Francisco 49ers 13

Closing line Saints -9.5; closing total 49.5

Saints +4.5 ATS; UNDER -9.5

Los Angeles Rams 23, Seattle Seahawks 16

Closing line Rams -3; closing total 55

Rams +4 ATS; UNDER -16

New England Patriots 23, Baltimore Ravens 17

Closing line Ravens -7; closing total 44

Patriots +13 ATS; UNDER -4

Minnesota Vikings 19, Chicago Bears 13

Closing line Vikings -3; closing total 44

Vikings +3 ATS; UNDER -12

The Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and New York Jets had their bye in NFL Week 10.

Key NFL Week 10 sports betting trends

Key NFL betting trends to keep in mind after NFL Week 9 include the following:

  • Favorites went 9-5 against the spread again this week, and are now 65-81-1 on the season, meaning NFL betting lines continue to favor many a sportsbook casino so far this season.
  • The two teams worst against the spread—the Cowboys (1-8) and Jets (2-7) were both on a bye. The three teams who had led the league in overs (Saints, Raiders, and Seahawks, all 7-1 over/under) all took the under.
  • Fewer games went over than under, 5-9, but overs still hold a season lead of 77-68-3.
  • Road underdogs continue to impress, covering at a 57% clip (52-39-1); road teams, in general, are covering 53% of the time (78-68-2).

Several teams have also been especially notable so far this season for NFL betting:

  • Three teams have relatively safe bets for the over: The Raiders, Saints, and Seahawks are each 7-2 over/under, though all three teams went under this past week.
  • The Rams are the safest bet to go under, at 2-7 over/under.
  • Teams averaging 30 points per game or more: Seahawks (32.2 ppg), Chiefs (31.8 ppg), Packers (30.8 ppg), and Saints (30.1 ppg).
  • Teams allowing 20 points per game or fewer: The Ravens (18.3 ppg), Rams (18.7 ppg), and Colts (19.7 ppg).

NFL Week 11 preview

 L.J. Collier of Seattle Seahawks against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium October 2020.
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Four teams have their bye week in NFL Week 11: The Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, and San Francisco 49ers. Let’s preview the fourteen games scheduled this week, as well as NFL betting lines and key information for smart online sports betting.

NFL betting picks

These are our picks for NFL Week 11 action, as well as key insights to inform your NFL betting odds:

Arizona Cardinals (6-3, 3-1 away) at Seattle Seahawks (6-3, 4-0 home)

Current line: Seahawks -3.5, over/under 57.5

The Seahawks have now lost consecutive games, a rarity in recent seasons. The normally notable home-field advantage in Seattle hasn’t been very effective against the Cardinals in recent seasons either. Arizona has won four of the last five in Seattle and beat the spread in all five.

Our pick: Cardinals 29, Seahawks 23

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1, 1-3 away) at Cleveland Browns (6-3, 4-1 home)

Current line: Browns -3.5, over/under 47.5

Even by NFC East standards, the Eagles laid an egg against the Giants. The Browns, meanwhile, look like they’ve gotten their formidable running game back on track with Nick Chubb’s return; both Chubb and Kareem Hunt passed 100 rushing yards in the 10-7 win against the Texans.

Our pick: Browns 24, Eagles 16

Atlanta Falcons (3-6, 2-2 away) at New Orleans Saints (7-2, 4-1 home)

Current line: Saints -4.5, over/under 51.5

Will quarterback Drew Brees play, or will his rib injury require the Saints to go with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill? That could be the difference against a division rival that has rebounded handily from their 0-5 start.

Our pick [with Brees]: Saints 30, Falcons 24

Our pick [without Brees]: Falcons 27, Saints 21

Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1, 0-4-1 away) at Washington Football Team (2-7, 2-3 home)

Current line: Washington -2, over/under 46.5

After showing significantly more life in recent weeks, the Bengals fell flat against the Steelers and Washington gave away a win in Detroit with silly mistakes. We’d expect both teams to look better this week, though rookie quarterback Joe Burrow could struggle with Washington’s front four, which compare favorably to Pittsburgh and Baltimore (both of whom gave Burrow trouble).

Our pick: Washington 26, Bengals 20

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0, 4-0 away) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8, 1-3 home)

Current line: Steelers -9.5, over/under 47.5

After a week without practice, Ben Roethlisberger looked as good as he has all season in picking apart Cincinnati. The Jags, meanwhile, continue to lose—but have beat the spread in both of rookie quarterback Jake Luton’s two starts.

Our pick: Steelers 30, Jaguars 21

Detroit Lions (4-5, 3-2 away) at Carolina Panthers (3-7, 1-4 home)

Current line: TBD; many online sportsbook casino offerings are waiting until Teddy Bridgewater’s status is known to set lines.

Will Bridgewater be available for the Panthers, or will they turn to Will Grier or PJ Walker? Can the Lions string together a few wins and make a playoff push?

Our pick: Lions 28, Panthers 23

Tennessee Titans (6-3, 2-1 away) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3, 2-2 home)

Current line: TBD

The Titans haven’t looked right since their 5-0 start, squeezing by the Bears and falling to the Steelers, Bengals, and Colts. The Ravens have looked nothing like last year’s juggernaut. Both teams could sorely use a win for postseason positioning.

Our pick: Ravens 27, Titans 24

New England Patriots (4-5, 1-3 away) at Houston Texans (2-7, 1-3 home)

Current line: Patriots -2.5, over/under 46.5

The Patriots remain a playoff longshot, but they seem to have found an identity in consecutive wins as a tough, grind-it-out team. Given the Texans’ weak run defense (28th by DVOA), the Patriots’ newfound running strength (3rd by DVOA) should have a good day.

Our pick: Patriots 26, Texans 21

New York Jets (0-9, 0-4 away) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-7, 1-3 home)

 Jamal Adams of New York Jets against the Los Angeles Chargers at MetLife Stadium December 2017.
Photo by Al Pereira/Getty Images

Current line: Chargers -8.5, over/under 46.5

The Jets have yet to win this year, but the Chargers have a gift for finding ways to lose—despite rookie quarterback Justin Herbert’s stellar play.

Our pick: Chargers 27, Jets 20

Miami Dolphins (6-3, 3-1 away) at Denver Broncos (3-6, 1-3 home)

Current line: Dolphins -7, over/under 45.5

The Dolphins rolled to their fifth consecutive win last week behind a vintage Tua Tagovailoa performance, while the Broncos folded in Vegas. Expect the Fins to keep rolling.

Our pick: Dolphins 30, Broncos 19

Green Bay Packers (7-2, 4-1 away) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3, 3-1 home)

Current line: Colts -2.5, over/under 51.5

Green Bay is winless in their last five trips to Indianapolis and is coming off a mistake-laden showing against the Jags. The Colts’ strong offensive line should also be able to take advantage of the Packers’ poor run defense.

Our pick: Colts 29, Packers 24

Dallas Cowboys (2-7, 0-4 away) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5, 1-3 home)

Current line: TBD

The Cowboys now have better NFL odds to nab the top draft pick (5% chance) than make the playoffs (4% chance). The Vikings look for their fourth consecutive win on the strength of Dalvin Cook’s legs.

Our pick: Vikings 28, Cowboys 16

Kansas City Chiefs (8-1, 4-0 away) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-3, 2-2 home)

Current line: Chiefs -7, over/under 56.5

The Raiders have gone over in 7 of 9 games this year, and are 6-3 against the spread. The Chiefs, though, are looking for revenge for their Week 5 loss as they try to keep pace with the Steelers in the race for the AFC playoff bye.

Our pick: Chiefs 33, Raiders 30

Los Angeles Rams (6-3, 2-3 away) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3, 3-1 home)

Current line: Bucs -3.5, over/under 47.5

Brady and the Buccaneer’s one weakness this year has been trouble with pressure—and few teams can bring pressure like Aaron Donald and the Rams just did against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.

Our pick: Rams 24, Bucs 20

Get the best betting odds with BetMGM

Whether a homer for your local team or just a fan of good games, it’s time to place your bets with BetMGM. We offer online sports betting fans a wide variety of wagers on all the teams participating in NFL Week 11. 

Visit our sportsbook to find out more.

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.