NFL Week 11 Odds Breakdown: Over-Under for the Colts at Bills

The AFC playoff picture is as muddy as two weeks ago, but we should get some clarity this week.

NFL betting lines are producing some intriguing options in Week 11, especially in games that could critically impact the AFC playoff race.

One game in Week 11 presents a lot of scoring potential.

Sunday’s Colts at Bills game could become a shootout. So if you’ve been wondering about the scoring potential for the over-under reaching 49.5 in Buffalo, keep reading. We’ll break down the scoring potential for each team this week.

Indianapolis Colts

It took ten games for the Colts to reach .500, but now their schedule gets more challenging. Nevertheless, Frank Reich thinks his team can take the AFC over after digging out of their initial hole. The Buffalo Bills in Week 11 are the first of several obstacles.

Indianapolis has relied heavily on the legs of Jonathan Taylor to win four of their last five games. Tied in yardage with the injured Derrick Henry, Taylor will likely take the NFL lead this Sunday, but the Colts need offense from more sources.

If T.Y. Hilton can stay healthy and contribute, Carson Wentz has more options. The quarterback has 17 TDs and only 3 INTs this year. Having Hilton on the field will make the team more explosive offensively.

Buffalo’s 1st ranked defense will key on Taylor. The Bills are 3rd against the run and 2nd in pass defense in yards per game, so Wentz will have a hard time all afternoon. However, I believe that the Colts will try to use play-actions to keep the Bills defense from stacking seven in the box. If the Colts can find success with those plays, it might give their running game some breathing room and allow them to put points on the board.

Buffalo Bills

A game against the New York Jets came at a perfect time for Josh Allen and his offense. The team’s scoring woes ended with a thumping of New York as the Bills put up 45 points, in part because of a strong running attack.

Last Sunday, Devin Singletary, Matt Breida, and Zack Moss each scored once. Receiver Isaiah McKenzie also ran for a score.

In my opinion, one of Buffalo’s greatest strengths is the ability to adjust to each game’s situation. Against the Colts’ 28th ranked defense, Josh Allen and company should have another big day.

Allen threw for 14-17 out of play-action and 21-28 in total for 366 yards against the Jets defense. In only nine games, the Buffalo Bills have eclipsed two franchise season records. And playing at home, the Bills are averaging 31.25 points per game.

I believe that the Buffalo Bills will try to contain Taylor and force Wentz to beat them through the air. The Colts are ranked 17th in passing offense, so Frank Reich will need to use some creative playcalling if he wants to keep this game close.

Colts at Bills (-7)

The Bills are 3-1 at home, with the only loss coming to Pittsburgh in the season’s first game. Since then, Buffalo has outscored the visiting team 109-32. As a result, this Colts at Bills matchup looks to be a high-scoring affair.

Yet I see most of the points getting scored from one side. I believe that the Bills will cover the seven points spread on their way to a big win and shut down the Colts for most of the afternoon.

So I like the under 49.5 for this game as well. So how do you see this big game turning out? Open an account today at BetMGM’s Indiana sports betting site and place your bets on all of this season’s NFL action.