NFL Update: Week 11 Review & Week 12 Preview

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BetMGM @BETMGM Jun 16, 2021, 2:20 PM
Thanksgiving offer banner for the Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh game with two football players on the left

In this week’s NFL update, let’s look at key NFL betting trends as playoff races heat up, including summarizing NFL Week 11 action and previewing NFL Week 12 games, as well as our NFL betting picks.

NFL Week 11 summary

NFL Week 11 included a few thrillers (we’re looking at you, Colts and Texans, Chiefs and Titans), a few surprises (the Panthers’ shutout of the Lions, Taysom Hill’s success with the Saints, the Steelers domination of the Jags), and added plenty of intrigue to divisional races (even in the NFC East, where all four teams are within a half-game). Let’s examine how each game compared to its closing NFL betting lines and totals to better inform your online sports betting in the coming weeks.

Seattle Seahawks 28, Arizona Cardinals 21

Closing line Seahawks -3; closing total 57

Seahawks +4 ATS; UNDER -8

New Orleans Saints 24, Atlanta Falcons 9

Closing line Saints -3.5; closing total 49.5

Saints +11.5 ATS; UNDER -16.5

Washington Football Team 20, Cincinnati Bengals 9

Closing line Washington -1.5; closing total 48

Washington +9.5 ATS; UNDER -19

Carolina Panthers 20, Detroit Lions 0

Closing line Lions -3.5; closing total 47

Panthers +23.5 ATS; UNDER -27

Houston Texans 27, New England Patriots 20

Closing line Patriots -2.5; closing total 49.5

Texans +9.5 ATS; UNDER -2.5

Cleveland Browns 22, Philadelphia Eagles 17

Closing line Browns -2.5; closing total 45.5

Browns +2.5 ATS; UNDER -6.5

Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 3

Closing line Steelers -10.5; closing total 47.5

Steelers +13.5 ATS; UNDER -17.5

Tennessee Titans 30, Baltimore Ravens 24

Closing line Ravens -6; closing total 50.5

Titans +12 ATS; OVER +3.5

Denver Broncos 20, Miami Dolphins 13

Closing line Dolphins -4; closing total 46

Broncos +11 ATS; UNDER -13

Los Angeles Chargers 34, New York Jets 28

Closing line Chargers -10; closing total 47

Jets +4 ATS; OVER +15

Dallas Cowboys 31, Minnesota Vikings 28

Closing line Vikings -7; closing total 50

Cowboys +10 ATS; OVER +9

Indianapolis Colts 34, Green Bay Packers 31

Closing line Colts -1.5; closing total 52

Colts +1.5 ATS; OVER +13

Kansas City Chiefs 35, Las Vegas Raiders 31

Closing line Chiefs -7.5; closing total 56.5

Raiders +3.5 ATS; OVER +9.5

Los Angeles Rams 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Closing line Bucs -4; closing total 47.5

Rams +7 ATS; OVER +3.5

The Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, and San Francisco 49ers had their bye in NFL Week 11.

Key NFL Week 11 sports betting trends

Chase Claypool runs the ball past two members of the Dallas Cowboys.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Key NFL betting trends to keep in mind after NFL Week 11 include the following:

  • Favorites went 6-8 against the spread again this week, and are now 71-89-1 on the season, meaning NFL betting lines continue to favor many a sportsbook casino so far this season.
  • Fewer games went over than under, 6-8, shrinking overs’ season lead to 83-76-3.
  • Road underdogs continue to impress, covering at a 56% clip (56-44-1); road teams, in general, are covering 52% of the time (83-77-2).

Several teams have also been especially notable so far this season for NFL betting:

  • After the Cowboys started the season 0-8 against the spread, they’ve covered in consecutive games. (The Eagles, Texans, and Jets are each next worst (3-7) against the spread.)
  • The best teams against the spread are the Steelers (8-2). The Dolphins and Raiders are each 7-3 against the spread.
  • The Bills and Raiders are the best bets for an over (8-2 over/under); the Eagles, Bears, Rams, and Cardinals (3-7) are the best bets for an under.
  • The three teams who had led the league in overs (Saints, Raiders, and Seahawks, all 7-1 over/under) all took the under.

NFL Week 12 preview

No teams have their bye week in NFL Week 12; only the Panthers and Buccaneers have bye weeks remaining (both in NFL Week 13) meaning we really are in the home stretch of the season. Let’s preview the sixteen games scheduled this week, as well as NFL betting lines and key information for smart online sports betting.

NFL betting picks

These are our picks for NFL Week 12 action, as well as key insights to inform your NFL betting odds:

Houston Texans (3-7, 1-4 away) at Detroit Lions (4-6, 1-3 home)

Deshaun Watson of the Houston Texans looks for a receiver.
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

Current line: Texans -3, over/under 51.5

Neither team has playoff potential—but neither team is in line for a top draft pick, either. Deshaun Watson is amazing, but there’s a reason this game is the first of three Thursday games: you might better spend your time enjoying your Thanksgiving meal prep.

Our pick: Texans 27, Lions 17

Washington Football Team (3-7, 0-4 away) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7, 2-3 home)

Current line: Cowboys -3, over/under 45.5

One of these teams will win consecutive games for the first time all season—and become a division leader in the process. Alex Smith is less prone to mistakes than Andy Dalton, but this could be another miserable NFC East game no matter who wins.

Our pick: Washington 24, Cowboys 16

Baltimore Ravens (6-4, 4-1 away) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0, 5-0 home)

Current line: Steelers -4, over/under 44.5

Coming off consecutive losses, the Ravens’ playoff hopes are flagging—but the Steelers need to keep winning to hold off the Chiefs for the AFC’s first-round bye. This game has been moved to Sunday as a result of the Ravens’ COVID-19 outbreak.

Our pick: Steelers 26, Ravens 17

Miami Dolphins (6-4, 3-2 away) at New York Jets (0-10, 0-5 home)

Current line: Dolphins -7, over/under 44.5

While rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa may have been benched late against the Broncos, the Jets—working toward the top draft pick and quite possibly only the third ever 0-16 season—may be just what the Dolphins need to cure what ails them.

Our pick: Dolphins 27, Jets 13

Arizona Cardinals (6-4, 3-2 away) at New England Patriots (4-6, 3-2 home)

Current line: Cardinals -2.5, over/under 48.5

Foxborough isn’t quite as scary given that the Patriots have already lost six games for the first time since 2009 and are on track for their first losing record since 2000. Coincidentally, that’s also the last time Tom Brady wasn’t the Patriots starter (excluding injuries).

Our pick: Cardinals 24, Patriots 20

Carolina Panthers (4-7, 2-3 away) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6, 1-4 home)

Jermaine Carter and Myles Hartsfield of the Carolina Panthers tackle a member of the Detroit Lions.
Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Current line: Vikings -4.5, over/under 48.5

PJ Walker got the win against the Lions despite two red-zone interceptions. The Vikings aren’t likely to be as forgiving, especially as they still hope to be a playoff contender.

Our pick: Vikings 24, Panthers 17

Cleveland Browns (7-3, 2-2 away) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9, 1-4 home)

Current line: Browns -6.5, over/under 49.5

The Jaguars are currently riding a nine-game losing streak, tied for the worst in franchise history—nine consecutive games in which they’ve given up at least 24 points. Regardless of who’s under center for the Jags (Jake Luton, Gardner Minshew, and Mike Glennon are all possibilities, and coach Doug Marrone isn’t tipping his hand), a new record for Jaguars futility and tenth consecutive loss seems likely.

Our pick: Browns 24, Jaguars 20

Tennessee Titans (7-3, 3-1 away) at Indianapolis Colts (7-3, 4-1 home)

Current line: Colts -3, over/under 51.5

Both teams are coming off big wins, and the winner here will take control of the AFC South. It may come down to which team makes fewer mistakes—and in their last meeting, two weeks ago, that was the Colts in a 34-17 win in Nashville.

Our pick: Colts 30, Titans 21

New York Giants (3-7, 1-4 away) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1, 2-2 home)

Current line: Giants -5.5, over/under 43.5

With rookie quarterback Joe Burrow out for the rest of the season, the Bengals’ season has taken a turn. A third consecutive win for the Giants would keep them firmly in the NFC East playoff race.

Our pick: Giants 23, Bengals 17

Los Angeles Chargers (3-7, 1-4 away) at Buffalo Bills  (7-3, 4-1 away)

Current line: Bills -5.5, over/under 53.5

With each win, Josh Allen and the Bills get closer to sewing up their first AFC East division title since the Jim Kelly-helmed 1995 team—before Allen was born.

Our pick: Bills 28, Chargers 27

Las Vegas Raiders (6-4, 4-1 away) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7, 1-4 home)

ALT: Nelson Agholor of the Las Vegas Raiders attempts to catch a pass before he is tackled. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images.

Current line: Raiders -3, over/under 55.5

Coming off a heartbreaker against the Chiefs, the Raiders need a win to keep pace toward their first playoff berth since 2016. Derek Carr should feast against the Falcons’ weak secondary; only the Seahawks have given up more passing yards.

Our pick: Raiders 35, Falcons 20

New Orleans Saints (8-2, 3-1 away) at Denver Broncos (4-6, 2-3 home)

Current line: Saints -6, over/under 43.5

Taysom Hill looked good against the Falcons, but the Broncos should present a tougher test. Even battling numerous injuries, the Broncos pass defense has remained admirable, so it’ll may come down to which team is better able to establish the run—as well as to how well the Saints can get after Drew Lock.

Our pick: Saints 27, Broncos 20

San Francisco 49ers (4-6, 3-2 away) at Los Angeles Rams (7-3, 4-0 home)

Current line: Rams -6.5, over/under 44.5

Shanahan’s 49ers are only 2-2 coming off a bye, but with the Rams coming off a short week, they’ll need to capitalize on the difference in fatigue if they want to claw back into the playoff race. Unfortunately, the 49ers might just be too battered, with too many injuries to compete this season.

Our pick: Rams 24, 49ers 14

Kansas City Chiefs (9-1, 5-0 away) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4, 3-2 home)

Current line: Chiefs -3.5, over/under 56

The Bucs have struggled in prime time this year—whereas it seems the brighter the lights, the better Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs shine. Expect coach Andy Reid to scheme to create plays in space against the Buccaneers’ league-best linebackers.

Our pick: Chiefs 40, Bucs 24

Chicago Bears (5-5, 3-2 away) at Green Bay Packers (7-3, 3-1 home)

Current line: Packers -8.5, over/under 45.5

Division rivalries like Packers-Bears often bring the unexpected, but this fading Bears’ team—losers of four straight—simply can’t compete with a Packers’ team that needs to rebound from blowing a very winnable game last week against the Colts.

Our pick: Packers 35, Bears 17

Seattle Seahawks (7-3, 2-3 away) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1, 2-2-1 home)

David Moore of the Seattle Seahawks gets tackled by a member of the Arizona Cardinals.
Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images

Current line: Seahawks -5, over/under 50.5

As bad as the Seahawks’ secondary has looked this season, they took a step forward last week against the Cardinals—and Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz has looked worse, leading the league with 14 picks (in addition to fumbling 10 times).

Our pick: Seahawks 30, Eagles 21

Get the best betting odds with BetMGM

Whether a homer for your local team or just a fan of good games, it’s time to place your bets with BetMGM. We offer online sports betting fans a wide variety of wagers on all the teams participating in NFL Week 12. 

Visit our sportsbook to find out more.

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.