NFL Week 11: Top 3 Bets for the Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills

min read
BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Nov 16, 2021, 8:18 PM

Two AFC forces collide in Buffalo this weekend in a possible playoff preview. The Indianapolis Colts enter this game at 5-5 amid a crowded AFC wildcard race. The Bills currently sit in first place in the AFC East at 6-3.

The Colts are underdogs according to the latest NFL odds. Indianapolis (+7) will need to pull out all the stops to pull off an upset and shift the balance of power in the AFC.

Here is a look at some intriguing betting options for this game.

Over 49.5 Points Scored (-110)

Both the Bills and the Colts have shown a penchant for putting up big offensive numbers. The Bills enter Week 11 second in points per game (31.1) with the Colts not far behind, ranked eighth (26.8)

Colts quarterback Carson Wentz has overcome some early-season struggles and has the offense back on track. The Colts enter this contest after winning four of their last five games. Indianapolis is averaging a blistering 32 points per game over that stretch.

The Bills have been an offensive juggernaut all season, with Josh Allen in contention for MVP. Buffalo moves the ball exceptionally well, averaging over 400 yards of offense per game.

Buffalo has put up 35 or more points in five of their nine games this season. This means the over could be in play even if Indianapolis struggles to keep up.

Both of these offenses are dangerous, and they have been clicking in recent weeks. So keep the over on your radar.

Colts to Score Over 20.5 Points (-110)

When considering the over for this game, the main concern would be the Buffalo defense. Buffalo currently ranks #1 in the league allowing just 15 points per game. The defense has been dominant, putting up two shutouts and holding opponents to 17 points or less in six of their nine contests.

Despite their impressive numbers, a lot can be attributed to a soft first-half schedule. The Bills have played some of the league’s worst offenses, including the Jets, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Texans.

The Bills haven’t faced many top-flight offenses all season, and when they have, the defense has looked vulnerable. In Week 6, the Titans moved up and down the field, amassing huge rushing numbers and putting up 34 points.

The Colts can muster a similar attack behind exceptional running back Jonathan Taylor. If they can establish the run and get Wentz in play-action, they may find similar success in moving the ball.

I believe the Bills defense is good but not as great as the current numbers indicate. Barring inclement weather, I think the Colts’ offense will put up points. Getting to 21 feels within reach.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) To Cover

The Colts have been playing some of their best football over the last month. While going into Buffalo is a daunting task, I believe they can hang around in this game if the Colts can win the turnover battle.

Even if they cannot keep pace with the Bills’ offense, the Colts may still be able to cover. The large touchdown spread leaves open the possibility for a backdoor cover in garbage time.

It won’t be easy, but this is a winnable game for the Colts if they can avoid mistakes. I would consider a wager on the Colts to cover the spread, and maybe even a small bet at +250 on the money line.

Get Your Popcorn Ready

Colts vs. Bills should be fun to watch. Keep an eye out for a lot of offense and a possible upset. The surging Indianapolis Colts will look to show they’re for real against an AFC heavyweight.

Check BetMGM’s Indiana sports betting site for the latest odds on Colts vs. Bills and all NFL games. Then, sign up for an account and place your bets on all Week 11 action.

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BetMGM Staff

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.