In this instalment of our NFL update, let’s look at key NFL betting trends through the first five weeks of the season, summarize NFL Week 5 action, and preview NFL Week 6 games before closing with our NFL betting picks.
NFL Week 5 summary
In NFL Week 5 action, there were a few surprises. Let’s look at how each game compared to the closing NFL betting lines and totals to better inform your online sports betting in the coming weeks.
Chicago Bears 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Closing line Buccaneers -3.5; closing total 44
Bears +4.5 ATS; UNDER -5
Arizona Cardinals 30, New York Jets 10
Closing line Cardinals -7; closing total 48.5
Cardinals +13 ATS; UNDER -8.5
Carolina Panthers 23, Atlanta Falcons 16
Closing line Falcons -2.5; closing total 53.5
Panthers +9.5 ATS; UNDER -14.5
Baltimore Ravens 27, Cincinnati Bengals 3
Closing line Ravens -12.5; closing total 49
Ravens +11.5 ATS; UNDER -19
Houston Texans 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 14
Closing line Texans -6.5; closing total 54.5
Texans +9.5 ATS; UNDER -10.5
Las Vegas Raiders 40, Kansas City Chiefs 32
Closing line Chiefs -10.5; closing total 54.5
Raiders +18.5 ATS; OVER +17.5
Los Angeles Rams 30, Washington Football Team 10
Closing line Rams -7; closing total 44.5
Rams +13 ATS; UNDER -4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 38, Philadelphia Eagles 29
Closing line Steelers -7.5; closing total 44
Steelers +1.5 ATS; OVER +23
Miami Dolphins 43, San Francisco 49ers 17
Closing line 49ers -8; closing total 50.5
Dolphins +34 ATS; OVER +9.5
Cleveland Browns 32, Indianapolis Colts 23
Closing line Colts -1; closing total 49.5
Browns +10 ATS; OVER +5.5
Dallas Cowboys 37, New York Giants 34
Closing line Cowboys -7.5; closing total 52
Giants +4.5 ATS; OVER +19
Seattle Seahawks 27, Minnesota Vikings 26
Closing line Seahawks -6.5; closing total 53.5
Vikings +5.5 ATS; UNDER -0.5
New Orleans Saints 30, Los Angeles Chargers 27
Closing line Saints -7; closing total 49
Chargers +4 ATS; OVER +8
Tennessee Titans 42, Buffalo Bills 16
Closing line Bills -3; closing total 52
Titans +29 ATS; OVER +6
The Denver Broncos game at the New England Patriots, originally scheduled for NFL Week 5, was postponed to NFL Week 6 after the Patriots received several positive COVID-19 test results.
Key NFL Week 5 sports betting trends
Key NFL betting trends to keep in mind after NFL Week 5 include the following:
- Favorites went 5-9 against the spread this week, and are now 4 games behind underdogs on the season, meaning NFL betting lines have been good for many sportsbook casinos so far this season.
- On the season, the Packers are 4-0 against the spread (the only undefeated team remaining); two teams (the Cowboys and Jets) are winless against the spread.
- More games went under their closing total this week, 8-6, though overs still lead on the season (43-34).
Several teams have also been especially notable so far this season for NFL betting:
- The Bills, Raiders, and Saints have seen all 5 games go over their closing totals.
- The Packers are averaging a league-high 38 points per game; the Seahawks (33.8 ppg), Cowboys (32.6 ppg), Browns (31.2 ppg), Saints (30.6 ppg), Titans (30.5 ppg), and Raiders (30.2 ppg) are other teams lighting up scoreboards.
- The Ravens (15.2 ppg), Colts (17.6 ppg), and Rams (18 ppg) have excelled at keeping points off the board.
- The Packers are covering by an average of 10.9 points, the best in the NFL.
NFL Week 6 preview
Four teams have their bye week in NFL Week 6: The Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints, and Seattle Seahawks. Let’s preview the thirteen games scheduled this week, as well as NFL betting lines and key information for smart online sports betting.
NFL betting picks
These are our picks for NFL Week 6 action, as well as key insights to inform your betting odds:
Denver Broncos (1-3, 1-1 away) at New England Patriots (2-2, 2-0 home)
Current line: Patriots -10, over/under 44.5
The Patriots are 5-0 both straight-up and against the spread in their last 5 games against the Broncos, though the Broncos are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 road games. Patriots quarterback Cam Newton is expected back from the COVID-19 list.
Our pick: Patriots 27, Broncos 17
Houston Texans (1-4, 0-2 away) at Tennessee Titans (4-0, 2-0 home)
Current line: Titans -3.5, over/under 52.5
Though the Texans showed more life in their Week 5 win over the Jaguars, the Titans are coming off an absolute steamrolling of the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills. The Titans have gone over in six of their last seven games—but the under has paid four of the last five times the Titans have hosted the Texans.
Our pick: Titans 35, Texans 17
Cleveland Browns (4-1, 1-1 away) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-0, 3-0 home)
Current line: Steelers -3, over/under 45.5
The Browns have impressed thus far, off to their best start since 1994—but playing at Pittsburgh will be their toughest test since their season-opening blowout loss to the Ravens. Can Kevin Stefanoski’s squad look better against their long-time rivals? (Money significantly favors the Steelers so far.)
Our pick: Steelers 24, Browns 20
Baltimore Ravens (4-1, 2-0 away) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-3-1, 0-1-1 home)
Current line: Ravens -7.5, over/under 47.5
While the Eagles looked better in Week 5 action against the Steelers, their injury-decimated lines may struggle against the Ravens’ far healthier counterparts. Expect Lamar Jackson to have a big day.
Our pick: Ravens 28, Eagles 20
Washington Football Team (1-4, 0-2 away) at New York Giants (0-5, 0-2 home)
Current line: Giants -1, over/under 42.5
In a matchup of cellar-dwellers, we see two NFC East teams seemingly headed in opposite directions; Washington impressed in their season-opening win against the Eagles, but have seen their defensive play decline since, whereas the Giants’ offense finally came alive last week in a close loss to the Cowboys. Expect to be underwhelmed by both teams, though, as the only thing on the line is draft positioning.
Our pick: Giants 20, Washington 16
Atlanta Falcons (0-5, 0-2 away) at Minnesota Vikings (1-4, 0-2 home)
Current line: Vikings -4, over/under 57.5
Both teams had playoff aspirations; neither team has any real chance of that any longer. (The Falcons are not actually currently even in NFL betting odds for a top-five pick.) At least the Vikings’ offense has shown promise the last few weeks.
Our pick: Vikings 29, Falcons 26
Detroit Lions (1-3, 1-1 away) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4, 1-1 home)
Current line: Lions -3.5, over/under 53.5
In another matchup of struggling teams, the Jaguars’ defense (among the three worst in the league by most metrics) makes the Lions’ poor defense look average. Look for hot-seat coach Matt Patricia to get a slight reprieve.
Our pick: Lions 30, Jaguars 23
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3-1, 0-2-1 away) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2, 2-0 home)
Current line: Colts -7, over/under 46.5
Though the Colts’ fearsome front got chewed up by the Browns’ run game last week, they get a remedy this week: Bengals rookie Joe Burrow has been sacked and hit far more than any other quarterback. Don’t expect that to stop Sunday.
Our pick: Colts 29, Bengals 16
Chicago Bears (4-1, 2-0 away) at Carolina Panthers (3-2, 1-1 home)
Current line: Panthers -1.5, over/under 45
Though the Bears are one of only four NFC teams to four wins (along with the 5-0 Seahawks, 4-0 Packers, and 4-1 Rams), after three consecutive wins, it’s the Panthers getting the line. Both teams have made a knack of pulling out wins and exceeding expectations. Expect a close contest that comes down to who wins the turnover battle.
Our pick: Panthers 24, Bears 23
New York Jets (0-5, 0-2 away) at Miami Dolphins (2-3, 0-2 home)
Current line: Dolphins -9.5, over/under 47.5
The Dolphins are coming off a surprising rout of the Niners; the Jets, a surprisingly flat rout at the hands of the Cardinals. Expect some Fitzmagic and the Fins to pull out their first home win of the season as Adam Gase’s seat gets a little warmer in New York.
Our pick: Dolphins 34, Jets 13
Green Bay Packers (4-0, 2-0 away) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2, 2-0 home)
Current line: Packers -1, over/under 54.5
Though the Buccaneers are still gelling as a team (note Brady’s fourth-down miscue last week against the Bears), they have plenty of talent. The Packers are coming off a bye week, but are still dealing with plenty of injuries. As the Packers are averaging nearly 40 points a game so far this season, the Buccaneers aren’t quite ready to keep up.
Our pick: Packers 37, Buccaneers 33
Los Angeles Rams (4-1, 2-1 away) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3, 0-3 home)
Current line: Rams -2.5, over/under 50.5
At season start, this might have looked like another opportunity for the 49ers—NFC champs last season—to assert their dominance over an NFC West rival. Coming off a blowout loss to the Dolphins, however, the 49ers are just trying to get healthy at this point. Though Sean McVay’s vaunted Rams’ offense has looked uneven so far this season (20 points against the Cowboys, 17 points against the Bears), the Rams defense has enjoyed teeing up on quarterbacks. Regardless of who ends up quarterbacking this week for the Niners (Garappolo, Mullens, or Beathard), expect him to take a beating.
Our pick: Rams 24, 49ers 16
Kansas City Chiefs (4-1, 2-0 away) at Buffalo Bills (4-1, 2-0 home)
Current line: Chiefs -4, over/under 57.5
After both teams were surprisingly upset in Week 5 (Kansas City falling as 10.5-point favorites and Buffalo blown out by 26 as 3-point favorites), which team will better rebound? Mahomes is a given as a top NFL signal-caller, but Josh Allen’s rise has been key to Buffalo’s fast start—and his two picks last week were a big part of why the Titans were able to blow the Bills out. If Allen can play a mistake-free game, the Bills can compete with Andy Reid’s merry band of speedsters; otherwise, expect an inspired Chiefs to bounce back in style.
Our pick: Chiefs 35, Bills 22
Arizona Cardinals (3-2, 2-1 away) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3, 2-1 home)
Current line: Cardinals -2, over/under 55
The Cardinals and Cowboys both got their offense rolling last week—but against the two cellar-dwelling teams from New York. As a result, both teams have big questions: How will the Cowboys’ game plan change without Dak Prescott? Can Kyler Murray and company develop some offensive consistency and keep things going?
Our pick: Cowboys 31, Cardinals 27
Get up-to-the-minute odds with BetMGM
It’s been an interesting NFL season so far and we can’t wait for Week 6 to get underway! Pick your team and place your wager with BetMGM and don’t miss a minute of hard-hitting NFL action.